GBP/JPY Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell significantly during the day on Friday, as we continue to grind around just above the 130 handle. I believe that the 130 level below is going to be the target, and then possibly significant support. A break down below the 130 level would be a negative sign, perhaps sending this market down towards the 125 handle after that. I have no interest in buying, and I believe that a rally that show signs of exhaustion could be a nice selling opportunity as well. Given enough time, I think the sellers will win.

USD/CAD Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The bestseller rallied against the Canadian dollar during the day on Friday, breaking above the top of the hammer from the Thursday session. By doing so, we started to reach towards the 1.32 level above, which I believe is a significant barrier. Once we get above there, or maybe more specifically the 1.3225 level, I feel that this market would then try to reach towards the next logical resistance barrier at the 1.35 handle. Pullbacks should continue to offer buying opportunities again and again. I have no interest in selling this market at this point in time.

USD/JPY Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Friday, ultimately settling on a neutral candle. At the Queen a pullback from here, but at this point in time the 100 level continues to be the “line in the sand” as far as the market and possibly the Bank of Japan is concerned. A supportive candle is reason enough to go long, so as a bounce off of the 100 handles far as I can see. A break above the top of the candle during the session on Friday could also have me buying this market as well.

EUR/USD Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the session on Friday, but turn right back around to slam into the 1.1250 level above. With this, the market looks likely to find quite a bit of resistance, and as a result I would be willing to sell on exhaustive candle but we obviously don’t have one to take advantage of at the moment. With this being the case, I’m on the sidelines as we continue to see lower highs, but I must admit Friday is a very positive day so far.

EUR/JPY Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair fell initially during the course of the session on Friday, but turned right back around to form a bit of a positive candle for the day. I believe that we are going to try to reach towards the 115 level, but it might be a bit of a grind to get there. Ultimately, I believe that this market will continue to struggle overall, so I feel that this is a short-term bounce at best. An exhaustive candle above could be a nice selling opportunity in my estimation. Although there is a short-term bounce coming in my opinion, I think it’s just that: short-term.

AUD/USD Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair fell slightly during the course of the session on Friday, breaking the bottom of the shooting star from Thursday. This of course is a fairly negative sign, and as a result I think that the sellers probably will continue to push a bit in this market. However, there is a significant amount of support just below, so I think this is a short-term selling opportunity at this point in time, nothing more. I believe that the 0.75 level will continue to be massively supportive, and of course you have to pay attention to the gold markets as they have a positive correlation with the AUD/USD pair.

EUR/GBP Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair rose during the day on Friday, as we tested the 0.87 handle. Ultimately, I believe that any pullback at this point in time would be a buying opportunity. The 0.84 level below should be a nice “floor” in this market, and with that being the case I think that the buyers will continue to punish the British pound for the exit move when it comes to the European Union. Ultimately, this market should then reach towards the 0.90 level above, if not even higher than that. Selling isn’t even a thought.

GBP/USD Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The British pound fell during the day on Friday, breaking below the 1.30 level at one point. I still believe that we will probably continue to go lower, perhaps reaching towards the 1.2850 level below. The negative candle that we have formed for the session on Friday tells me that there is still plenty of negative pressure in this marketplace, as we continue to punish the British pound for the exit vote out of the European Union. I believe that rallies and show signs of exhaustion are also selling opportunities as well.

NZD/USD Forecast September 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair fell rather significantly during the course of the session on Friday, as we crashed through the 0.7250 level. I believe that there is a significant amount of support at the 0.72 level below, so having said that it’s not until we break down below there that I think we continue to sell off. Any rally at this point in time could very well find sellers above, but then again could be a simple continuation of the overall consolidation. However, before I would worry about that I need to see what the market does once we get down to the 0.72 level.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast- September 23, 2016

The USDCAD pair finally snapped its losing streak and put an end to the downward spriral that it had been going through for the past few days. This was helped by the general return to strength of the USD which gained back its mojo 24 hours after the FOMC announcement.

For the large part of yesterday, the pair continued on its bearish run and tested the strong support and the large round figure of 1.3000 and this was where it decided that enough was enough and it decided to stop its bearish run. Then began a period of upward grind with 1.3000 as the base and ground upwards till 1.3071 and it sits at 1.3060 as of this writing.

The Core CPI and the Retail sales data is to be released from Canada later in the day and this is bound to have an impact on the price. The Core CPI is expected to be coming in at 0.2% while the retail sales is expected at 0.5%, both of which are expected to be far better than the data from the previous month. Hence it remains to be seen whether the actual data will match the expectations.
For today, we expect the pair to range between 1.3000 and 1.3070 and then the data would determine its future direction. The price action so far suggests that this pair could continue its bullish run and break through 1.3070 to target 1.3120 as a first target. This also depends a great deal on the general strength of the USD but we believe that the markets have settled down and we could be in for a period of ranging. We would advise the traders of this pair to choose their ranges and try to trade the extremes of the range where their chances of success are multiplied rather than being impatient and trying to get in at a price that is in the middle of the range.

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast - September 23, 2016

Like the other USD related pairs, EURUSD also continued its upward grind during the whole of yesterday, a grind that began a couple of hours after the FOMC announcement. The bears could not break the support at 1.1145 even though they gave it their best shot and once the announcement and the details became known, the bulls took control of the price and started to slowly move it upwards. They faced a lot of selling pressure at 1.1200 and it took a while for the Euro to break through this resistance which it eventually did.
The bulls, once 1.1200 was broken, needed to enjoy their fruits of labor and they carried the price through till 1.1250, which was specified as a target by us, yesterday. Price stalled for quite a while at this price region due to a lot of selling as the market waited for Draghi to address his meeting and speak about the Euro economy. There wasnt anything special in his speech and the fact that he didnt want to rile the markets just after major announcements from different central banks across the world was clear. But just a day after the FOMC announcement and the resulting updward grind against the USD began, the USD strength slowly returned and the USD began to gain strength across all pairs. This affected the Euro as well and just like the upward grind, it began a slow downward grind overnight.

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast - September 23, 2016

GBPUSD continued its upward grind during most of the day yesterday, a grind that began sometime after the FOMC announcement. This grind took it past the big round figure at 1.3000 and then through the resistance at 1.3060 and it reached 1.3080 where it was met with some strong selling from traders. Beyond this, there is the round figure of 1.3100 and then on to 1.3170.
Fundamentally, nothing much has changed over the past 2-3 weeks and hence we believe that this trip towards 1.2950 was just a correction and a fall back into the range for the pound. This is the same reason that we expected a bounce from 1.2950 which has proved true so far and we expect this bounce to continue till 1.3170 atleast. Even if the pair decides to make a trip back to the mid or low 1.2900s, we expect the price to bounce back into range and remain bullish. This continues to be a period of ranging and consolidation for the pound post-Brexit as the market tries to figure out the correct value of the pound after the exit. This will not be clear until the details are worked out and that is going to take quite a while.

EUR/JPY Forecast September 23, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair rallied during the course of the session on Thursday, testing the 113 level. However, this point in time I think that we will more than likely see some type of exhaustive candle above that gives us an opportunity to start selling again. With this being the case, I think that the market will then eventually drop down to the lows yet again. I believe that the Euro will continue to weaken overall, and as a result I am bearish of this pair. Ultimately, I think that we will probably reach towards the 110 level over the longer term.

EUR/GBP Forecast September 23, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Thursday, but turned around to form a bit of a shooting star. Ultimately though, there is quite a bit of support below that should continue to keep this market afloat. In the meantime, expect that we will see a bit of sideways choppiness with an upward bias overall. I’m a buyer, and as a result I a am simply waiting for reasons to go long. Once we get towards the top of the shooting star from a couple of sessions ago, I believe that the market will then reach towards the 0.8750.