AUD/USD Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Friday, but found enough resistance above the 0.78 level to turn things back around and form a shooting star. The shooting star of course suggests that the market is ready to go lower, and if we can break below the bottom of the range for the session, we feel this market should then head to the 0.76 level next. If we broke above the top of the shooting star, we still think there is enough resistance above to keep the market in a downtrend over the longer term as well.

EUR/CHF Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/CHF pair went back and forth during the day on Friday, eventually settling on a slightly negative candle. That being the case, looks like the downtrend will continue, and if we can get a break down below the bottom of the range for the day we are sellers. We also sell on rallies that show signs of resistance, especially if they end up somewhere close to the 1.04 handle. We have no interest in buying this market until we clear the 1.05 level, which is something that we will not see anytime soon so therefore we are essentially “sell only.”

EUR/GBP Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially fell during the course of the day on Friday, but for the third day in a row we ended up bouncing enough to form a nice-looking hammer. Because of this, and the fact that we are at the bottom of the recent consolidation area, if we can break above the 0.7250 level, we would be buyers and aiming for the 0.74 level. We think that we are going to essentially consolidate overall, so this is a short-term buying opportunity more than anything else. On the other hand, if we break down below the lows of the last three candles, we would be sellers and aiming for the 0.70 region.

EUR/JPY Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the session on Friday, but then turned things back around to form a positive candle. However, we recognize that there is a lot of volatility in this area, so we know that any move higher is going to struggle. We think eventually we could go to the 131 handle, but quite frankly at this point in time we are bit hesitant to start buying the Euro against the Yen of all currencies. On the other hand, if we had some type of resistive candle form, we would be much more comfortable selling.

EUR/USD Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Friday, eventually settling on a slightly positive candle. The candle is in quite a shooting star, but it does look similar. Because of this, we think that the pair may drop from here, as the US dollar looks very positive at this point. It is strengthening against several currencies in the form of shooting stars in hammers as support and resistance, so it’s very likely that the US dollar should strengthen in general during the session. With that, and a break down below the bottom of the range for the Friday session, we would be sellers.

GBP/USD Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially broke higher during the course of the session on Friday, but as you can see struggled at the 1.50 level. By doing so, the market turned back around and formed a shooting star at the perfect level. Ultimately, I believe that this market will continue to show bearish pressure and that the rally is probably over. If we can break down below the bottom of the shooting star, we believe the market would then head to the 1.48 handle, and then possibly the 1.46 level given enough time.

NZD/USD Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Friday, but found way too much in the way of resistance near the 0.77 level. Ultimately, we ended up pulling back in forming a nice-looking shooting star. Because of this, the market looks like it’s ready to continue the downtrend that we have been in over the longer term, as long as we can break down below the bottom of the shooting star. Once that happens, we feel this market is probably going to head to the 0.75 level given enough time.

USD/CAD Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair fell during the bulk of the session on Friday, but found enough support at the 1.21 level to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. With this, it appears of the market is ready to bounce significantly, perhaps heading all the way to the 1.25 level again. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the hammer, that is a very bearish sign and we should then head to the 1.20 level. Either way, one thing you can count on in this marketplace: volatility.

USD/JPY Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Friday, but as you can see had a slightly negative result. With that being the case, the market looks as if it is trying to find a bit of support in this general vicinity, so we are waiting for supportive candle in order to go long. On the other hand, if we can break above the 119.50 level, we would be buyers there as well, as it would show the market breaking above the top of the past two sessions.

USD/CHF Forecast April 20, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair fell during the course of the session on Friday, testing the 0.95 handle. This is an area that has been massively supportive in the past, so it does not surprise us that we stopped right here. We would be buyers if we can find some type of supportive candle, but we also recognize that a move below the 0.94 level would be massively bearish, and have us selling this market and looking for the 0.90 level. In the meantime, we keep rising the market as there is plenty of importance in this area.

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis, April 20, 2015 – Forecast

The NZD/USD is a surprised this morning printing in the red down 13 points to 0.7658 as the US dollar continues to ease. Many traders were pushing up the kiwi in hopes of stimulus from the Chinese which did not materialize this week.  The New Zealand dollar touched a fresh record high against the euro amid mounting concerns that Greece may exit the common currency as it fails to make progress in reaching agreement on its debt repayments.

The kiwi soared above the Reserve Bank’s projections to a nine-month high but traders and strategists say the bank has few options, other than jawboning, to drive the currency lower in the face of stand-out economic growth.

The central bank intervened in currency markets last August but may be reluctant to use more reserves in another attempt, given the relative weakness of economies such as Australia’s and the Euro region. So far this year, the New Zealand dollar has hit record highs against a weaker Aussie and euro, while its decline against the greenback has stalled as traders push back their expectations for higher US interest rates following softer economic data. Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler, who has put monetary policy in neutral with a benchmark rate advantage over most major economies, has repeatedly called the kiwi unsustainably and unjustifiably high.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis, April 20, 2015 – Forecast

The AUD/USD gave up 27 points after surging higher than expected on a great jobs report. Traders are selling off to book profits after the pair traded above the 78 level and is holding at 0.7776 this morning.  The Australian dollar surged to a three-week high in overnight trade, reaching the 0.78 mark for the first time since March 27 as investors continued to analyze strong local jobs data.

The surge has been driven by news of a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.1 per cent as the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday reported a much stronger than expected net jobs gain for March.The development took analysts by surprise and has cast doubt on a May rate cut from the Reserve Bank, which many had previously considered to be a near certainty.

The U.S. dollar declined against other major currencies on Thursday as economic data from the country came out overall negative.

In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was 294,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level, said the U.S. Labor Department Thursday. The latest reading was above market consensus of 280,000.

Housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 926,000, 2.0 percent above the revised February estimate of 908,000, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. However, the latest figure was below market consensus of 1,040,000.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis, April 20, 2015 – Forecast

The USD/JPY dipped a few points as the pair moved just below the 119 level and is trading at 118.99 and is expected to continue a bit lower as the greenback has no support after weak data weighed heavily on traders. Yesterday, building permits, new housing starts, and jobless claims all printed in red while the only bright spot was a jump in the Philly Fed index.

The dollar held at its lowest in over a week against a basket of major currencies early on Friday, having suffered yet another setback overnight in the hands of more underwhelming U.S. economic data. Frustrating dollar bulls, housing starts rose far less than expected in March, extending a string of disappointing data that suggested the economy could struggle to rebound from a soft patch in the first quarter. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart said the recent “murky” run of U.S. data has him leaning against a June interest rate hike. Lockhart quickly added he was confident the economy will remain on track.

Trading in Asia could struggle in the absence of market-moving data. Consumer inflation readings in the euro zone and the United States and Canadian retail sales data are on offer later in the session.

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis, April 20, 2015 – Forecast

The EUR/JPY gained 10 points in the Asian session reflecting a strong rebound in the equities markets as traders ignored currencies with a lack of data or drivers. The euro gained a few points as the US dollar weakened in the early session. A slew of weaker than expected data in the US session and as shown below weighed heavily on the US dollar and supported its crosses. The pair is steady at 128.18.

The euro dropped against the greenback amid heating concerns about Greek debt. Greece’s public finances in 2014 were worse than initial forecasts, the Hellenic Statistical Authority said Wednesday, raising concerns that the Greek default is looming this spring if Athens fails to reach a deal with lenders on further financing.

Keeping the heat on Athens, the head of the International Monetary Fund signaled that the IMF would not agree to let Greece delay a scheduled bailout payment. Against the yen, the euro reached a one-week high of 128.18 .

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, April 20, 2015 – Forecast

The EUR/USD climbed to a short term high of 1.0817 gaining 56 points after the release of inflation data in the Eurozone which met expectations. Consumer prices in the Eurozone remained stuck in negative territory in March, but a return to positive price growth could now be around the corner.

Official figures confirmed inflation was just -0.1pc in March, following a 0.3pc descent in February. Nine out of the bloc’s 19 members are now in deflationary territory, down from 17 in January.

But in encouraging signs for the flagging currency bloc, month-on-month inflation rose by 1.1pc suggesting a descent into entrenched deflation is now unlikely.

The European Central Bank unleashed a €1.1 trillion bond-buying program to revive price growth last month. The program is due to last until September 2016 at least, with the ECB hinting inflation is likely to hit 1.8pc 2017.

The dollar fell for a fourth straight day on Friday, coming close to its one-week low, after a run of weak US economic data cast doubt on prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate rise in coming months.

The latest data showed US housing starts rose less than expected in March and factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region grew modestly this month. That suggests the economy may struggle to rebound from a weak first quarter.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of major currencies, traded 0.3 per cent lower at 97.429. It is on track to fall almost 2 per cent this week – its biggest loss in a month.