The New Zealand dollar rallied initially on Monday but turned around to form a shooting star. The 0.7150 level above offered enough resistance to cause doubt in the mind of traders. If we can break down below the bottom of the shooting star for the session on Monday, I think that the New Zealand dollar will drop back down to the 0.70 level underneath. Regardless, I prefer the downside but I also recognize that we have seen a significant move higher. Because of this, expect quite a bit of volatility in the market, which of course is highly influenced by the overall attitude of commodity markets.
The British pound gap lower at the open on Monday, testing the 1.20 level underneath. This is an area that should be massively supportive, but I believe we are trying to get down below there, perhaps reaching towards the 1.15 level over the longer term. Any rally now will more than likely offer and exhaustive candle that we can start shorting, as the British pound continues to be pummeled. The monthly charts have massive support at the 1.15 level, so longer-term that will be my target. Any massive rally from there could be the end of the downtrend.
The GBP/JPY pair gapped lower at the open on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of bearish pressure in this pair. Ultimately, I think that there is significant support below, but this of course suddenly looks like we are going to go even lower. Exhaustive candles between here and the 140 level should be selling opportunities for the short-term, with perhaps significant support at the 135 level below to turn things back around to the upside. Regardless, this is going to be an extraordinarily volatile currency pair over the next several sessions.
The AUD/USD pair had a volatile session on Monday, reaching towards the 0.75 level above. This is an area that is resistive, and until we can break above there and it close on a daily chart above it, I have no interest in buying. A breakdown below the bottom of a hammer from the front a session could have me selling, as I think the market will pull back to the 0.73 handle. Ultimately, pay attention to gold markets as they have such a massive influence on the Australian dollar in general.
The EUR/GBP pair gap tire at the open on Monday, and then turned around to fall and try to fill that gap. It looks as if we are breaking out to the upside now though, so some type of support candle should send this market reaching towards the 0.89 level above where I see resistance. Ultimately, I don’t have any interest in selling anymore, it looks as if the British pound is certainly starting to get sold off yet again. I don’t like the Euro, but it certainly doesn’t have as much bearish pressure as the British pound does currently.
The EUR/JPY pair gap lower at the open on Monday, turned back around to fill the gap, and then rolled over to form a negative candle. The 120 level below should offer quite a bit of support though, so I’m waiting to see whether we get a bounce from there. If we do, I’m willing to go long as this pair has been so well supported. Ultimately, I don’t like selling until we can break down below the 120 level with some significance. It’s not that I like the Euro, it’s just that the Japanese yen has been sold off so drastically.
The EUR rallied during the day on Monday, but found enough resistance at the 50-day exponential moving average to turn around and form a less than spectacular candle. I believe that the market is going to continue to drop from here, perhaps reaching towards the 1.05 level. That area should be supportive, but I think in the short term that’s where were going. I believe that the 1.07 level above is massively resistive in the downtrend should continue. There are far too many questions about the vitality of the European Union at the moment for me to become for buying.
The USD/CAD pair rallied a bit during the day on Monday, but remains below the uptrend line that we have recently formed. A break above the top of the hammer on Friday would have us going long, as it would be a significant moved to go higher. The oil markets of course have quite a bit of influence on the Canadian dollar, and thus you should pay attention to that market also. A breakdown below the bottom of a hammer would be a very negative sign and send this market much lower.
The USD/JPY pair fell on Monday, but found enough support near the 114 level to turn things around to form a hammer. There is a lot of noise between here and the 111.50 level, meaning that I should see plenty of buying opportunities as we fall. Alternately, if we can break above the 115 handle, I feel that the market within reach towards the 118.50 level above again, and then eventually the 120 handle above there. Ultimately, this is a market that I have no interest in selling, and believe that it will continue higher.
The USD/JPY pair went back and forth on Friday, testing the 115 level. This is an area where I think we will see a significant amount of support, but I also believe that the support extends all the way down to the 111.50 handle. If we can break above the top of the candle for the Friday session, the market should then reach towards the 118 level, and perhaps even higher than that. Ultimately, I believe that the uptrend is the only way to follow, as the market has most certainly bottomed by now.
The USD/CAD pair initially fell on Friday, but turned around to form a hammer just as we did on Thursday. If we can break above the top of the hammer from Thursday, I believe that the longer-term uptrend will continue, and we should reach towards the 1.35 handle above. Alternately, I believe that there is a lot of noise between here and the 1.30 level, so I’m not interested in selling until we break below there. Pay attention to oil, it has a massive influence on the Canadian dollar obviously, and that of course is a very choppy market now.
The NZD/USD pair went back and forth showing signs of volatility on Friday. We are sitting just above the 200-day exponential moving average, but just below a significant downtrend line. Because of this, I think that if the market can break out to the upside, it should be a relatively powerful move. A break down below the bottom of the candle should send this market looking for the 0.70 level. Ultimately, this will be a volatile market, but given enough time we should get the signal necessary to put money into the market.
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth, forming a relatively neutral candle. There is a significant amount of support below though, as the 1.20 level underneath offers a major barrier. A break above the top of the shooting star from the Thursday candle tells me that the market wants to go to the 1.25 level above, which is massively resistive. Ultimately, there is a longer-term weekly hammer, so that suggests to me that the buyers are trying to build a bit of a floor in this area. Regardless of what’s happening, I expect a lot of volatility.
The GBP/JPY pair bounced off the 100-day exponential moving average on Friday, just as we did on Thursday. Now that we are trying to get above the 140 handle, I believe that the market is going to continue to go higher. Also of interest is the fact that we are currently at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the move higher, so it’s likely that a lot of traders are interested. I believe that the market is going to try to get to the 150 handle above, and therefore remain very bullish.
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally on Friday, but fell just as it did on Thursday, forming a shooting star again. Because of this, I believe that the short-term move to the 1.05 level is more than likely what we are going to see. Alternately, if we can break above the 1.0790 level, the market will probably go higher. Ultimately though, I believe that the longer-term downtrend continues in general, and with that being the case selling pressure should continue to present itself. Regardless what happens, it’s a very volatile situation just waiting to happen.
The EUR/JPY pair rose on Friday, breaking the top of the hammer from Thursday. This is a bullish sign, and I now believe that were going to continue to consolidate the same way we have for several weeks. Because of this, on a buyer and I believe that the market will reach towards the 123.50 level above. Even if we were to break down from here, I believe that the 120 level is a floor in the market, and thereby I have no interest in selling anytime soon. It’s not that I like the Euro, it’s that the Japanese yen is so soft.
The EUR/GBP pair rallied during the session on Friday, but found a bit of resistance above. Ultimately, the market found a shooting star being printed, and then of course suggests that the sellers could be involved. However, there is a significant amount of support just below, so I’m not willing to sell this market until we break down below the 0.8650 handle. Alternately, if we break above the top of the shooting star for the session on Friday, I believe the market goes much higher. Either way, expect a lot of choppiness in this pair as per usual.
The Australian dollar went back and forth during the day on Friday, as we continue to bang up against the 0.75 level. This is an area that will be resistive as it has been in the past, but ultimately, we are overextended as well. Because of this, if we can break down below the bottom of the candle, the market will probably drop from here. However, if we break above the 0.7525 level, I believe that the market will then reach towards the 0.06750 level. Either way, I expect a move soon, and now it seems as if the buyers are making the stronger case.
The GBP/JPY pair broke down below the 140 handle during the session on Thursday, testing the 100-day exponential moving average. I see a significant amount of support at the 138.50 level though, so if we can bounce from that region, I think the market will continue the uptrend. If we can break down below that area, we will more than likely continue to drop from there. This could be a very important day for this pair, so pay attention and thus we should get a signal to either buy or sell in the next 24 hours.
The AUD/USD pair rallied during the day on Thursday, testing the 0.75 level. That’s an area that I believe should be rather resistive, so if we can break above the top of the range for the session on Thursday, the market should continue to go much higher. Alternately though, if we form an exhaustive candle here, the Australian dollar could pullback, as it is a bit overextended. Pay attention to the gold markets, they of course have an influence on the Aussie dollar itself. Regardless, expect quite a bit of volatility no matter which direction we go.