NZD/USD Forecast July 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair tried to rally during the day but found the 0.70 level to be far too exhausted to continue going higher. With this, we did up forming a bit of a shooting star and as a result I feel that if we can break above the top of the shooting star and mournful way to the 0.70 level, that would be a bullish sign in the market should very well go higher from there. On the other hand, we do have quite a bit of noise only down to the 0.69 handle. With this, I feel that a break down below that level could very well send this market much lower. I believe that over the next couple of days, we are going to have to come to some type of conclusion when it comes to the New Zealand dollar.
Remember that the New Zealand dollar is highly sensitive and influenced by commodities in general, so having said that I have more of an inclination to sell this market but I need to see the 0.69 level overcome to the downside before I can do that. I do recognize that markets don’t necessarily do what they “should do”, so we break above the top of the shooting star then find, I’m a buyer but I do recognize that there is a lot of resistance above.
If we break down below the 0.69 handle, that could be a move heading down to the 0.67 level given enough time. Having said that, the one thing that makes me wonder about the New Zealand dollar is the fact that we have fallen so hard over the last several sessions, but perhaps we may struggle to continue with the bearish pressure. This would be the technical case, but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has recently suggested that is the Kiwi dollar continues to strengthen, they may have to do something drastic like a lower interest rates. While they have not done it yet, just a simple threat as at least jawboned the currency down.

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