AUD/USD Forecast May 5, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar fell a bit during the day on Thursday, as we continue to see weakness in the commodity markets. Gold markets fell apart, and that of course is a very negative when it comes to the Australian dollar. Short-term rallies should be selling opportunities, and with the jobs number coming out today it’s likely that we will get some volatility. The red 24-hour exponential moving average should continue to offer negativity as well, and I think that the 0.7430 level could be a resistant area. I certainly think that the 0.7450 level will be as well. Pay attention to gold, and obviously will drive where the Australian dollar goes during the session. I would anticipate that it will be volatile due to the jobs number, but once we get that announcement out of America it will give us a little bit more in the way of directionality.
The 0.7450 level has been support in the past, and I think it now offers a bit of a “ceiling” in this market. The gold markets falling apart of course has put a dark cloud above the Australian dollar, and the recent concerns of the Reserve Bank of Australia as far as the global economy is concerned of course will work against the value of the Aussie also. It’s not until we break above the 0.75 level that I would consider buying this currency, and as you can see over the last couple of days we have broken down rather significantly. That gives us an idea of the general attitude of the market as we have broken down rather relentlessly, and because of this it’s likely that the sellers will take control going forward. The 0.70 level underneath will be a nice longer-term target for the sellers.