NZD/USD Forecast May 10, 2017, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair fell during the session on Tuesday, breaking below the 0.69 level. As I write this, we are currently consolidating just below the level, and of course the 72-hour moving average. Ultimately, I think if we can break down below the 0.6880 level, the market should then go to the 0.6850 level. I don’t have any interest in buying this pair, it looks as if it’s ready to roll over again. In the short term, expect more consolidation but I certainly think that there is more of a downward bias than anything else. Rallies should be selling opportunities, and I believe that market participants will look at them as such. Ultimately, I think we could break down significantly, but pay attention to the commodity markets as they tend to lead the way. In general, the New Zealand dollar follows the overall attitude of commodity markets.

Rolling over?

I believe that the New Zealand dollar is rolling over in general, and with that being the case it’s likely that the market continues to drop from here. The current consolidation could offer and I selling opportunity, and depending on whether you wait for a breakdown or some type of exhaustive candle, could depend on the type of trader you are. The 72-hour moving average is starting to turn to the downside, so we could be at the beginning of the move lower. Ultimately, I don’t have any interest in buying until we break above the 0.6950 level, which will take a significant amount of upward momentum to accomplish. Either way, expect quite a bit of choppiness in this market place, and that of course means that the market might be one that is uncomfortable to trade. Nonetheless, I believe that the overhang continues to weigh upon the kiwi.