NZD/USD Forecast May 8, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar had a positive reaction to the jobs number in America during the Friday session, breaking above the 0.69 handle. However, we are very much in a downtrend and I don’t think that is changing currently. I recognize that there is a short-term buying opportunity, but that’s about it, I would not expect the market to rally much more above the 0.6950 level. Ultimately, I believe there is quite a bit of resistance above, probably all the way to at least the 0.70 level. If we can find some type of exhaustive candle I’d be more than willing to short this market. If we can break down below the 0.6880 level, the market should then go looking for the 0.6850 level underneath, possibly even lower than that. A breakdown below the 0.6840 level should send this market even lower levels. Longer-term, I believe that the natural inclination of this pair is to go lower because of the commodity markets and how soft they look.

The safer trade: selling the rallies.

Although I do recognize that there is a short-term buying opportunity, the fact that we did not hang on to about half of the gains within an hour or so of the jobs number tells me just how fleeting this rally will probably be. Ultimately, I think that if you are patient, you should get a nice opportunity to start selling the New Zealand dollar yet again. If the US dollar falls, it’s not going to be for very long, least not against the commodity currencies like this one. Expect choppiness, but I still think that it is one that looking at the longer-term charts shows what the obvious move is. The 0.70 level above would have to be broken for me to feel that the longer-term move is higher.