AUD/USD Forecast June 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied on Thursday, reaching to the 0.7680 region. We found enough resistance there a pull back slightly but it appears that the 24-hour exponential moving average continues to offer support, even in this extended move. The market continues to favor the Australian dollar overall, and I believe pullbacks are going to continue to be potential buying opportunities and of course value in a market that looks as if it is trying to reach the 0.7750 level over the longer term. The markets are trying to find yield, and the Australian dollar is one of the higher-paying currencies. If we can break above the 0.7750 level, the market then should be free to go to the 0.80 level over the longer term. That’s not to say that it won’t be volatile, this pair almost always is, especially with crosswinds coming out of Asia.
The Aussie as a proxy
Remember, the Australian dollar is a proxy for not only gold markets, but the entire outlook on the Asian continent. The Australian supply most of the raw materials for construction and places like China and Indonesia, and this of course has a bit of a “knock on effect” when it comes to the AUD. With this, pay attention to the Asian stock markets, because as they rise, typically demand for commodities such as gold, copper, and iron increase, and that of course benefits the Australians who export so much of that to the region. Currently, it looks as if the Australian dollar is very bullish, so I have no interest in selling, and would not consider looking at that possibility until we break down below the 0.76 level, something that doesn’t look likely to happen in the short term as the buyers have been so aggressive.