EUR/USD Forecast June 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair rallied a bit during the day on Thursday, breaking above the 1.14 handle. The market looks content to grind sideways for the short-term, which makes quite a bit of sense considering how much we have rallied. I think that there is probably more downside risk and up in the short term, just because of the volatility that we have seen in the one-way bet that has been this trade for several days. I believe that the pullbacks will offer buying opportunities though, but one will probably have to be patient to see the gains.
Taking a breather
I believe that the phrase “taking a breather” is probably the best way to describe what we are about to see in this pair. I also recognize that the upcoming Independence Day holiday early next week will start to drain liquidity out of the market from the United States, so this could skew the trading a bit. I think given enough time though, the buyers will come back, especially if we can reach down towards the 1.13 handle. After all, that was a significant break out, and of course has already held up to intense selling pressure after the random tweet caused chaos in the financial markets.
Ultimately, the 1.15 level is the top of a larger consolidation area, and I think the market will be attracted to that level. I think that is the target, but in that area the real fight begins. In the meantime, this will be a lot of noise. I certainly have an upward bias, so I’m looking for value to take advantage of, or at least a sign that we are going to extend the run higher. I have no interest in selling, we’ve already seen what happens when this market sells off.