NZD/USD Forecast June 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar had a volatile session on Wednesday again, as we reached towards the downtrend line on the weekly timeframe, and then fell apart. We are now below the 0.73 handle again, and that of course is a slightly bearish sign. However, I do believe that this market longer term is simply trying to build up enough pressure to break out. This downtrend line is significant, and of course commodity markets aren’t necessarily helping the kiwi dollar, something that quite often is the case. With that, I suspect that it’s going to be a bit more difficult to break out but once we do it should be significant, reaching towards the 0.75 level in short order.
The alternate scenario
The alternate scenario of course is a breakdown but I would need to see the market break below the 0.7250 level to be conference, because at that point it would become a “lower low.” The volatility in this pair has been extremely over the last couple of sessions, which is indicative of what we have seen in the Forex markets overall. The New Zealand dollar being the least liquid of the Major pairs, it makes sense that we would see so much noise here. I believe that currently the 0.73 level is essentially “fair value in the pair, so short-term traders will probably continue to push back and forth around that area. Longer-term, I am bullish but I need to see confirmation of a breakout to put money to work in what could be a very choppy kind of market. If agricultural futures pick up value, then that could help the New Zealand dollar as well, but currently it seems as if the interest rate situation is what most traders are focusing on.