USD/JPY Forecast July 20, 2017, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair went sideways initially during the day on Wednesday, but broke below the 112 level. By doing so, the market then fell to the 111.50 level, and looks likely to continue to find sellers. I believe that there is a significant amount of support at the 111 level, but quite frankly the real support is probably closer to the 110 handle. That’s an area where they would expect a lot of buying pressure, so in the meantime I think that short-term sellers will continue to push this market to the downside. In fact, as long as we can stay below the 112.50 level, it’s likely that the sellers will continue to have the upper hand. If we did break above there, that could turn things around and have the market reaching towards the 113 handle. If we can break above there, the market should then go to the 114 handle.
The importance of the 112 level
The 112 level is a major level on this chart, and I believe that the market will continue to be very volatile, and of course the US dollar is on its back-foot due to interest rate questions. Ultimately, I believe that the market is going to continue to be a “sell on the rallies” situation. Longer-term, we may find buyers closer to the 110 handle, from a structural point of view. I think that the markets will continue to be volatile as they typically are, but I also believe that the pair continues to be very sensitive the headlines coming out of the Federal Reserve. Given enough time, I think that both buyers and sellers will get what they want. In that sense, there’s a little bit for everyone in this market as the volatility continues to pick up.
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