AUD/USD Forecast October 9, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the session on Friday, but found the 0.7750 level to be resistive after we broke down below it. This is a very negative sign for the Australian dollar, as this was the scene of a major breakout. Ultimately, I think that the market is probably going to continue to go much lower, and that’s going to be especially true if the gold markets roll over. Ultimately, I think the market could go looking as low as the 0.75 level the short term. As far as buying is concerned, I would be very hesitant to do that, least not until we break above the 0.78 level. There is so much in the way of volatility and I think that the markets will be difficult to deal with if you are bullish. However, you may get a rapid move lower, if you are selling. Because of this, I think is can be much easier to sell, and that’s especially going to be true if the gold markets roll over significantly.
Selling rallies
I am selling rallies on short-term charts until we break above the 0.78 handle, because that of course would show a significant bounce after an attempt to break down drastically. I think that if we can break above the 0.70 level, then the market will go looking for the 0.80 level again. However, I think it’s very unlikely that we see that right away, so I think that you should get some or opportunities in both directions if you nimble enough, but I would also suggest that perhaps buying is going to be much more difficult to do unless you do it slowly and build up a larger term position. Nonfarm payroll days are very difficult, especially considering that we have mixed signals from the employment situation. In a sense, this almost looks as if it is a “risk off” move.