NZD/USD Forecast October 11, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar went back and forth during the day on Tuesday, as the 0.7050 level underneath has offered support. I believe that the 0.71 level above is resistive, and if we can break above there, the market should continue to go higher. At that point, the market should then go to the 0.72 level after that. I think that the 0.70 level underneath continues to be the “floor” in the market, and if we break down below there I think it changes everything in this pair, perhaps reaching down towards the 0.68 level would be the next thing that happens. Ultimately, I suspect that the buyers are probably going to eventually get involved, as it appears that we are forming some type of base for a potential bounce.
Keep in mind that the New Zealand dollar is highly influenced by commodities, so you can use this as a bit of a “barometer” for those very markets. Ultimately, I think that if commodities go higher, then this pair should go looking towards the 0.75 level over the longer term. Alternately, if we break down below the 0.70 level, this will probably be a result of the US dollar gaining in general, as not only will it show strength against the kiwi dollar, but I will also show strength against commodities. With this being the case, I think that small position size is probably the way to go, but given enough time I suspect that we will get some type of signal that we can follow for a longer-term move. Ultimately, I think that once we get an impulsive candle, we will be open to follow it for the next several handles. Between now and then, it’s likely that the market will just go back and forth in short-term trades.