NZD/USD Forecast October 19, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar continues to be volatile, as we have seen it fall rather significantly during the day on Wednesday, testing the 0.7120 level. Ultimately, this is a market that is also testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, so I think that we may see buyers jump back into this market. If we can break above the 0.7140 level, I think that the market will then grind its way towards the 1.72 level above. The natural order of things in this market is that we rise when risk appetite gains, as well as commodities in general. While there is no specific commodity that I follow, I look at the New Zealand dollar as an overall “barometer” when it comes to playing the commodity markets. In general, if they rise, the New Zealand dollar does well. On the other side of the equation, the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency, and that of course has this market falling when problems arise in global markets.
Longer-term, I believe that the market will probably go towards the 0.75 level above, which has been massive resistance on the longer-term charts. I think that a break above the 0.75 level would send this market the much higher levels, but I think that the struggle to get above there will continue to offer quite a bit of volatility. I don’t have any interest in shorting this market, least not until we break down below the 0.70 level, something that doesn’t look very likely to happen anytime soon. It will probably take some type of geopolitical concern to have this market selling off that drastically. Longer-term, I believe that we are going to go to the 0.80 level, and don’t forget the pay attention to the Australian dollar, as the 2 pairs tend to move in similar directions.