USD/CAD Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially went sideways against the Canadian dollar during the trading session on Wednesday, but found enough support at the 1.28 level to continue going higher, and reached towards the 1.2850 level. With the Crude Oil Inventories number coming out a little bit more bullish than anticipated, we did get an initial pull back, but the 1.28 level has been proven to be supportive. Because of this, I think that the market will eventually go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 1.30 level over the longer term. This pair tends to be rather choppy regardless of this scenario, because quite frankly the 2 economies are so highly intertwined. The fact that we turned around and rallied again suggests that perhaps something in the distillate sector had traders concerned, and of course a lot of the drawdown could have been due to the large Thanksgiving weekend.
At this point, I suspect that the market has already made up its mind that it is going to go higher, and therefore I feel that the 1.30 level is probably somewhat a given at this point. The 1.28 level holding is necessary though, so think of that as the “floor” of an uptrend. Given enough time, we should try to break above the 1.30 level, which would be a bullish sign, and a sign of the next leg higher. Ultimately though, I think that the market will struggle to get through there, and it might take a little while to get the necessary clearance. Once we do though, I think we continue the longer-term uptrend that we have seen for a while, and it’s only a matter of time before the US dollar continues to rally based upon interest rate differential and interest rate outlooks in America.

AUD/USD Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar fell during most of the session on Wednesday, but did find a bit of support near the 0.7550 level and bounced slightly. However, I believe that this market continues to be one that we can sell, and that we are trying to build up enough momentum to finally break down below the 0.75 handle. Once we do, the market should go much lower, as it is a break of significant support. I recognize that the markets continue to be very choppy and volatile, which makes quite a bit of sense as the gold markets themselves have been very tight and noisy. By being tied in noisy, there is no clarity, and it’s difficult for the Australian dollar to follow its lead.
Rallies at this point should continue to find trouble above, especially near the 0.75 handle, where we have a lot of order flow. When you look at the longer-term charts, the Australian dollar is falling apart essentially, and I think that it only lends itself to shorting at this point in time, at least until we see the market break above the 0.7650 level, something that looks very unlikely to happen in the short term. I like the idea of taking advantage of rallies on short-term charts as value in the US dollar, and if we can break down below the 0.75 handle, the market could find itself going down to the 0.73 handle rather quickly.
Pay attention to gold, the $1300 level has been massively difficult, and if we were to take off above there, we could see a similar move here in the Aussie. Until then, I just can’t make the argument for buying the Aussie over the US dollar which has the benefit of having interest rate hikes coming soon.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair fell a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we have a bit more clarity on the fees that the United Kingdom will be paying the European Union upon exit. Because of this, we rolled over a bit and it looks likely that we are going to have a fight on her hands at the 0.88 level. This is an area that has been rather supportive lately, and of course was an area that found quite a bit of interest. I think we may try to form a bit of a base in this area, and it’s likely that the fact that it has been the bottom of longer-term consolidation also suggests that we could turned right back around.
A breakdown below the 0.88 level would signify more weakness, and could send this market down to the 0.86 handle after that. Because of this, if I see the market break down below the 0.8750 level, I then consider the 0.88 level broken. In the meantime, any sign of a bounce I believe is a buying opportunity as the risk reward ratio is much higher to the upside. After all, even though this has been a significant reversal, when you look at the longer-term charts, there is still a lot of bullish pressure underneath. There are other factors beyond the potential bills for leaving the European Union, which favor the stability of the EU, at least in the short term. I like the idea of buying some type of bounce, as we have a clear target in the form of the 0.90 level above, which of course was the top of the same larger consolidated area. On the breakdown, I believe it could be rather rapid, because it would show a bit of a capitulation.

EUR/USD Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been very choppy during Wednesday trading, bouncing from the 1.1825 region, but finding a significant amount of resistance at the 1.1875 level. Longer-term, the market has been looking rather bullish as of late, so I am more inclined to buy some type of reversal pattern if and when we get it. Perhaps a “W pattern” on the hourly chart, or a “higher high” can be used to go long, but until then, I think that we are probably better off waiting for the appropriate signal. I certainly don’t have any interest in shorting a market that has rallied so much, so I think that it’s likely we will probably have to be very patient and wait for a better trading opportunity.
The US dollar of course is being very volatile due to a lot of unknown possibilities coming out of the U.S. Congress and its passing of tax reform. Because of that, it’s likely that the value the USD will fluctuate rapidly with headlines coming out of Washington DC. Currently, it looks as if the U.S. Congress is going to try to pass some type of tax reform, but until they do I think there is a certain amount of skepticism. We did see the tax bill passed the Senate committee, which is the first major hurdle to overcome, but there are a lot of other problems.
Having said all of that, as long as we are above the 1.17 handle, I have no interest in shorting this market as I think we are clearly still in an uptrend, and a complete reversal of what could have been a head and shoulders breakdown tells me that there is still a lot of underlying buying pressure. Regardless, position sizing will be crucial.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound rallied against the Japanese yen again during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking above the 150 level. That if course is a very bullish sign, and it suggests that we are starting to clear rather significant selling pressure. Because of this, it’s likely that we go to the next psychologically important level at the 152.50 level, but we could be a bit noisy between here and there. After all, we have seen a significant move higher, so it’s likely that it’s going to take a bit more in the way of momentum to gain these last 250 pips. Pullbacks offer buying opportunities, and if the 150 level can hold as support, we could see a very large move shortly.
Ultimately, if we break down below the 150 handle, we could see a move back to the 149.50 level, where I see a lot of order flow based upon the momentum that picked up on the hourly chart. We also tested it on the short-term pullback recently, so it’s possible that we have already seen that retest. I like the idea of going long this pair, but I also recognize that it can be very volatile, so you should be careful with your position sizing and of course make sure your stop losses are at an obvious place such as the 149.50 range. This market can move rather quickly, so don’t be surprised by that, but longer-term, this market certainly looks very healthy.
If we did breakdown below the 149 handle, I would be very concerned at that point, because it would be a complete reversal of what has been a very strong move. That would have me on the sidelines, because it would muddy the picture to the point of it being very hard to interpret.

GBP/USD Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound initially rally during the day on Wednesday, but then pulled back after reaching the 1.34 handle. By doing so, it looks as if we found more buyers just below, and the market continue to reach towards the 1.3450 level. I believe that the market will continue to be a “buy on the dips” scenario, as the British pound is getting a bit of reprieve after it was announced that the United Kingdom and the European Union are green to terms of a fee to pay for exiting the European Union. The 1.3333 level looks to be support going forward, and a bit of a floor. Because of this, if we can stay above there I think that buying is the only thing you can do and it is only a matter of time before we reach towards the important 1.35 level above. Above there, the next target will be the 1.3650 level which is a scene of a massive gap lower.
If we can break above that level, the market is more than likely going to continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 1.40 level after that. That level will course be important because it is a psychologically important level, but in the big scheme of things I don’t think it’s particularly important. In other words, once we break above the 1.3650 level, the market is likely to continue going much higher, perhaps for the long term.
I believe that the alternate scenario would be a breakdown below the 1.3333 level, which would send this market looking for the 1.3250 level after that. A breakdown below there would probably have the market looking for the 1.30 level, although I think that is the least likely of all of the scenarios that I see.

NZD/USD Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar has been very noisy during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking well above the 0.69 level again, but forming a perfect shooting star on the hourly chart to roll over and break down below that level again. I believe that the market is trying to roll over in general, and perhaps is exhausting itself at these reasonably high levels based upon short-term movement. At this point, I suspect that the market is going to go looking towards the 0.68 level underneath. That’s an area that has been massively supportive recently, and I think it will be again. However, if we were to break down below there the New Zealand dollar could come undone, perhaps reaching towards the 0.66 level, and then of course the 0.65 handle. This is a market that will continue to be very noisy, because there are a lot of concerns in general.
Some of those concerns include the US dollar strengthening based upon the tax reform bill, as well as interest rate hikes. Because of this, the US dollar has found a bit of strength lately, especially as commodity currencies. However, what also seems to be pushing this market is concerned that the Labour Party running the show in New Zealand means that we are going to see more spending out of that country, which of course is the same thing as quantitative easing. In other words, the fundamentals lineup for a lower New Zealand dollar in general, and at this point I think that is probably the best way to trade this market, simply selling rallies as they appear, and assuming that we will have to make a serious run at the 0.68 handle underneath. I also believe that if we were to break above the 0.70 level, that changes everything in this pair, and we would have to reevaluate the entire situation.

USD/JPY Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar was a very choppy during the trading session initially on Wednesday, but then broke above the 112 level, only to find enough resistance to turn things back around. At this point, if we can clear the highs of the day, I believe that it will show that momentum has picked up enough to continue to drive this pair to the upside, perhaps the 114.50 level again. I think that a lot of this is going to come down to what happens in Congress, and whether we can get some type of tax bill passed. We have cleared a couple of girls so far, so it could be a good sign that we are in fact going to get them. By making a “higher high”, it’s likely that the momentum to the upside will continue to strengthen, and at this point I still favor the upside, although this market has been noisy to say the least.
I also believe that there is a massive amount of resistance between the 1.1450 level and the 1.15 handle, so it’s going to take something special to break through there. Once we do, this becomes a “buy-and-hold” market, and more of an investment and less of a trade. In the meantime, expect the choppiness to continue, but this could be an opportunity to build up a large position over the longer term, and simply ride the US dollar higher as interest rates climb. It looks as if the central banks around the world are trying to do whatever they can to move the currency markets, and with the Federal Reserve being by far the most hawkish central bank out there, it makes sense that we would see this market rally, barring some type of massive geopolitical issue.

AUD/USD Price Forecast November 29, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar went back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday, bouncing around the 0.76 handle. That being the case, I think that the market should be very volatile in this general vicinity, but as you can see I have a lavender rectangle above on the hourly chart that should signify resistance, especially near the 0.7650 level. Some type of exhaustive candle could be a scenario where I start to sell again, and of course I would pay attention to the gold markets to give us an idea as to where the Aussie should go next. It has been struggling as of late, but if we do breakout above the $1300 level significantly in the gold market, that should send the Australian dollar higher. Alternately, if we break down below the 0.7575 level, the market breaks down towards the 0.75 handle again. I think the risk appetite of the overall markets will have an effect on the Aussie as well, as it is considered to be a risk asset.
We are starting to see some strength in the Aussie though, and that may have to do with U.S. Congress looking less likely to pass significant tax reform. Ultimately, if we break above the 0.7650 level, I think we go to the 0.7750 level next. I do think that eventually will get some type of exhaustion though, and therefore I believe that the downside is much more likely. If stock markets roll over, that could give us an opportunity to start selling the Aussie as well, as it would show a general flight to safety, and that almost always means money flowing into the US treasury markets. Obviously, if you want to buy US treasuries, you need US dollars.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast November 29, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair pulled back slightly during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 0.89 level underneath. We bounce from there to reach towards the 0.8950 level above, but had a bit of resistance in that region to struggle. If we can break above the highs of the Monday session, the market should then go to the 0.90 level above. A break above there allows the market to reach towards the 0.93 level, and that is my longer-term outlook for this market. I believe that buying dips continues to be the best way to trade this market as the European Union is going to continue to be thought of as more stable than the United Kingdom. I also believe that traders will be attracted to the EU as deteriorating conditions in the United Kingdom could cause the British pound to suffer against the EU.
A break above the 0.90 level would have the market looking for the highs at the 0.93 level, and many of the people that I talk to in the industry expect this market finally go to parity sometime during 2018. I suspect that probably is the truth, but there is going to be a lot of volatility in general, as headlines will continue to be an issue for this market, coming from both Brussels and London as we try to figure out what the break up between the 2 economies will be. It will continue to be a noisy affair, and therefore trading with smaller positions would make sense. The 0.89 level underneath is offering support in general, although a breakdown below there is not catastrophic as I see the 0.88 level underneath being the “floor” in the market. Adding slowly on your way up is probably the best way to go.

EUR/USD Price Forecast November 29, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair spent most of the day going sideways on Tuesday, but then pulled back to reach towards the 1.2860 level underneath. It is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the move higher, and we are starting to see buyers jump back into this market. Given enough time, the market probably goes back towards the 1.1950 level above, which was the highs from Monday. Eventually, I believe that we go to the 1.21 level above which was the highs that we had recently had, and this pullback that we have seen in the EUR/USD pair has been healthy, and it gives us an opportunity to pick up a little bit of value. The US dollar continues to get hit due to the US Congress not been able to pass some type of tax reform, and even if it does it looks likely that the tax reform will be a watered-down version.
The 1.18 level underneath is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and I believe that it is the “floor” in the recent uptrend, and I think it’s only a matter of time before market participants jump in and push to the upside. If we break down below the 1.18 level, then I think we would probably drop down to the 1.17 level where we would have to make some serious decisions. Longer-term, if we can break above the 1.21 handle, the market should continue to go much higher and based upon the weekly bullish flag that I see on the weekly chart, we could go as high as the 1.32 level longer-term, perhaps late next year.
In the meantime, I believe that pullbacks are value propositions that traders will take advantage of, and I plan to do the same. Adding slowly is probably the best way to go, expecting a large move early next year.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast November 29, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading day on Tuesday, reaching towards the 148.50 level until we rolled over, forming a shooting star on the hourly chart and then breaking down below the 147.50 level. This market continues to be one that sells rallies off, and on the first signs of exhaustion it’s time to start selling again. I think that the market is going to go looking for the 145-handle underneath, which is massively supportive. I have no interest in buying this market, because the British pound has gotten beaten down, and of course the Japanese yen is starting to strengthen against several other currencies around the world in a bit of a “risk off” move. With this type of negativity, I look at every rally as an opportunity to pick up the Japanese yen “on the cheap.”
If we managed to break above the 149 handle, I would be impressed, until then I think that the market is going to continue to be very difficult to buy, but selling is easy. It just comes down to being patient enough to get a decent entry price, which of course where the waiting for a rally comes into play. I would also be a seller below the 147 level, as it would be yet another barrier that’s been taken out. Volatility will continue to be a major issue in this market, but certainly there seems to be more negative pressure than bullish over the longer term. The market should continue to offer plenty of opportunities if you are patient enough. Nonetheless, I certainly have a negative bias in general, and therefore will ignore buying opportunities until we either break the 149 level to the upside, or a bounce significantly from the 145-handle underneath.

GBP/USD Price Forecast November 29, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday, but found the area above the 1.3333 level to be a bit too expensive. Because of this, I think that the pullback to the 1.3250 level makes a lot of sense, and this was an area where we had seen a bit of resistance in the past. I think that we could find buyers in this area, perhaps reaching towards the 1.3333 handle again. If we were to break down below the 1.32 handle, the market will probably drop down to the 1.30 level over the next several sessions. Ultimately, I do think that this market breaks out, but the pullback is probably necessary to build up the momentum that the market needs to break above when I feel is the prize: the 1.3650 level above as it is the gap from the surprise announcement that the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union.
This gives us an opportunity to buy the British pound on pullbacks as it offers value, and the British pound is historically cheap against the US dollar. Alternately, if we were to break down below the 1.30 level underneath, the market would probably fall rather significantly. I think this would take some type of surprise announcement to come out, and I believe that given enough time we will probably find reason enough for the British pound to rally against the US dollar, maybe in the form of the US Congress not being able to pass significant tax reform. It seems as if the US Congress has become even more dysfunctional than usual over the last couple of months, and with a lack of tax reform, that will be very negative for the US dollar.

NZD/USD Price Forecast November 29, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar went back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to hang about the 0.6925 level. I think there is a certain amount of support extending down to the 0.69 level, so I need to see this market break down below that level to start selling again. I do think that eventually the sellers take over though, and should send this market back down to the 0.68 level. Any rally at this point in time should find plenty of sellers above, especially near the 0.70 level which has been important on longer-term charts. The New Zealand dollar is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so keep that in mind as commodity markets will typically influence where the kiwi dollar goes. In general, the market has been very bearish as of late, and with the election of a Labour Party prime minister, a lot of traders are concerned about expanded spending in New Zealand.
Technically speaking, the 0.69 level is the middle point of an overall consolidation area, between the 0.70 level on the top, and the 0.68 level on the bottom. I have no interest in buying, and believe that it’s not until we close above the 0.70 level significantly that I could consider doing so. I am a seller, simply waiting for signs of exhaustion and a roll over to short. One of the biggest problems I think they have in this pair right now is the inability of the United States Congress to pass tax reform, and that has been weighing upon the value the greenback. Longer-term though, I still favor the downside unless of course something changes fundamentally. Over the next couple of days, it could be volatile, but I do think that it’s only a matter of time before the sellers take over.

USD/CAD Price Forecast November 29, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar went sideways initially on Tuesday, but then shot towards the 1.28 handle above, finally breaking out above that level slightly. Ultimately though, the market looks likely to pull back from here a bit though, because we are struggling at a recent high. We have gone a bit parabolic over the last 36 hours, and I think that a pullback is necessary to build up the momentum to go higher. This market is going to be highly influenced by crude oil as per usual, and with crude oil markets rolling over a bit, it makes sense that the Canadian dollar will lose value. That being said, there are is a lot of volatility in this market, so I think that it’s going to be very difficult to hang onto a large position. I believe that building a position as it works out in your favor is probably the best way to go, and I also recognize that underneath that the 1.2750 level is probably supportive based upon recent order flow.
Alternately, if we break above the 1.2833 handle, we will have made a fresh new high, which of course is a nice buying opportunity. The 1.27 level underneath should be massively supportive, but a breakdown below the 1.2675 level would be massively negative, and send this market much lower, perhaps down to the 1.25 handle. I believe that the volatility is going to continue to be an issue, as the oil markets have been very unsure to say the least. The high volatility in the oil market almost always translates into high volatility in this market. In general, I do favor the upside though, as it is more of a “risk off” move, something that I think is a bit overdue in general.

USD/JPY Price Forecast November 29, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar rallied slightly against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 111.50 level. I think there is a significant amount of resistance between here and the 112 level, and it’s only a matter of time before we show signs of exhaustion. On those signs of exhaustion, I believe that the market will roll over again, based upon the fact that we have broken through a significant support level. The market probably goes back down to the 111 level, and a breakdown below there should go down to the 110 handle. If we did break above the 112 level, it’s likely that we will continue to go back towards the 114.50 level above.
I believe that the US dollar continues to struggle due to the United States Congress failing to pass tax bills, and of course the possibility of some type of roll over in the stock markets and of course “risk assets.” Likely markets will continue to be very volatile, and that of course works against the value of this pair at times, because the Japanese yen is a safety currency. I think that the 108-level underneath is the longer-term target if we continue to see softness in this pair, because it is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation that the market has been in for some time. The market breaking below the 108 level would be catastrophic. I don’t think that happens though, because eventually the U.S. Congress will have to pass some type of tax bill. Beyond that, we have interest rates rising in the United States which should naturally soften any type of move below in this market, and perhaps offer a bit of a cushion. It really comes down to how levered you are, whether you want to start trying to pick up the US dollar at cheap levels, or if you want to short the market. I personally believe in shorting until we break above the 112 level, or visit the 108 handle.

AUD/USD Price Forecast November 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has been very volatile during Monday trading, initially surging higher during the day, but finding enough resistance near the 0.7650 level to roll over and sell off rather significantly. The daily candle looks very likely to form a shooting star, and at a vital resistance barrier. I believe that if we break down below the 0.7585 level, the market should then roll over towards the 0.75 level where we should see even more significant order flow. A breakdown below the 0.75 level sends the market looking to the 0.7350 level next, as it has shown signs of support in the past. Remember, we have seen a significant pullback from the vital 0.80 level, which is massively important on charts going back decades. If we were to break above the 0.80 level, that could signal a very long-term moved to the upside. However, we do not have the bullish gold market that would be needed to facilitate this move.
I believe that eventually we will break down, as the gold market simply cannot move forward. There seems to be a massive amount of resistance above current levels in gold, and I think that’s going to continue to work against the Australian dollar. In general, this is a market that tends to be very violent and its movement, but I think we can continue to start selling rallies, and you can see that on the hourly chart we have crossed over in the overbought part of the stochastic oscillator. I think that even if we break higher than the highs of the Monday session, we probably will find sellers again rather soon. It is because of this that I certainly favor the downside going forward, and don’t have much in the way of an appetite for buying.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast November 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair drifted a bit lower during the trading session, as Monday ended up being relatively quiet. The 0.89 level underneath should be supportive, just as it was resistive on the way up. I believe in the longer-term uptrend anyway, which should send this market looking towards the 0.90 level above, as the market has been attracted to that price in the past. If we can break above there, then we are free to go much higher, specifically the 0.9350 level. The markets continue to see traders favor the Euro over the British pound, as there is more certainty in the EU and its future than the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom offering uncertainty will of course work against the value of its currency in contrast to the EUR.
I think that the market is going to eventually reach towards the parity level, which has been called for by many pundits over the last year. We were previously in an uptrend anyway, so by the United Kingdom leaving the European Union, that only increased the pressure to the upside. However, recently the European Central Bank has suggested that quantitative easing was going to be extended, albeit at a slower pace. That of course works against the value of the Euro in general, and I believe that the uptrend has been a bit slowed because of this, but ultimately should continue to be the case going forward. Remember, this pair has double the value per take almost, and that of course means that we don’t need as large of a move to profit. The 0.88 level underneath should continue to be the “floor” in the market, and if we can stay above there I believe that the uptrend is very much intact.

EUR/USD Price Forecast November 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair rallied initially during the trading session on Monday, reaching towards the 1.1950 level above, and then pulled back towards the 1.19 level underneath. I think that the market is starting to struggle a bit, but that makes sense considering that we are a bit overextended. We have just crossed below the 24-hour exponential moving average, so a pullback could be coming. I expect to see a lot of support near the 1.1850 level though, and will look at any pullback at this point as a potential buying opportunity. When I look at the weekly chart, there is a bit of a bullish flag being attempted, and I think that could signal a longer-term “buy-and-hold” scenario. I do recognize that there is a lot of noise between here and the 1.21 handle though, so it’s not necessarily going to be an easy move.
Pullbacks of this point should continue to be value, if we can stay above the 1.17 level. It’s not until we break down below that level that I would consider selling this market, as that is the “floor” in the pair for me. If we were to break down below there, I would not only short this pair, but I would become very aggressively short as it would show a complete repudiation of the massive amount of bullish pressure that we have seen. That being said, I fully anticipate that a “buy the dips” attitude continues to pay off for those who are patient enough to get those opportunities, and of course have the wherewithal to hang on to those trades. Once we break above the 1.21 handle, that would signify that we have not only broken the weekly time frame bullish flag, but could go as high as 1.32.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast November 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound fell against the Japanese yen initially during the trading session on Monday, reaching down towards the 148 handle. The 148 level is slightly important, but I think it’s much more supportive closer to the 147.50 level underneath. If we can break down below there, the market should continue to go down to the 145 level, which of course is much more important from a longer-term standpoint and of course a psychological standpoint. In general, I believe that we continue to see a bit of downward pressure, as it looks like the Japanese yen is starting to pick up value against other currencies again. In general, I believe that the market continues to see a lot of noise, which is typical for “The Dragon”, as it is a very risk sensitive market. That risk sensitivity should continue to be a mainstay of the currency markets, as there are a lot of moving pieces geopolitically.
I believe that perhaps that will be what moves this market next, geopolitical issues. I think there are far too many things going on right now for the markets to continue to go higher without a significant fight. I think that this pair is can be a very interesting to watch, as it could be a bit of a “canary in the coal mine”, as to where risk appetite is going to go. Even if you don’t trade this pair, you should pay attention to it, so you can get an idea as to what to do with the Japanese yen, and perhaps even commodity currencies as they tend to be “riskier.” If we were to break above the 149 handle, then I believe that the market would probably go looking towards the 150 level which is much more resistive.

GBP/USD Price Forecast November 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound initially rally during the trading session on Monday, breaking above the significantly resistive 1.3333 handle. As I record this though, we are turning around to form a bit of a shooting star on the daily chart, suggesting that perhaps a pullback is coming. That pullbacks would make a lot of sense, this has been an area that has been very resistant in the past, and I believe that the market should continue to go down to the 1.32 handle, and perhaps even lower than that. Alternately, I believe that at this point if we were to break above the highs of the day, then that would of course be a very bullish sign and could send this market looking towards the 1.35 handle. When you look at the hourly chart, you can make out a bit of an uptrend in channel, so this is certainly a possibility.
Beyond the 1.35 handle, there is the significant 1.3650 level, which a break above would be a longer-term “buy-and-hold” situation. Until then, I think this is probably more of a “buy on the dips” situation, and even though I believe that the market will probably pull back, longer-term this is still a bullish market from what I can see. However, if we do break down below the 1.32 handle, then I think we could open the door to the 1.31 handle after that, which has been structurally important in the past. The one thing I think you can probably count on in this market though is going to be volatility as there is always the concern of headlines affecting the British pound involving the breakaway from the European Union, and of course of the United States Congress failing to pass tax legislation has caused volatility in the dollar as well.

NZD/USD Price Forecast November 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar shot higher during the day on Monday, slicing through the 0.69 handle. By doing so, we have cleared a significant resistance barrier on the short-term charts, but quite frankly we are still in a longer-term downtrend. I believe that this gives us an opportunity to look for selling at higher levels, and for short-term traders to take advantage of the volatility to the upside. However, I am a much more likely to go looking for selling positions closer to the psychologically important 0.70 level above, which has been important more than once on the longer-term charts. I recognize that the US dollar is having some struggles during the day, but given enough time I believe that the New Zealand dollar will return to the downside that we had seen recently.
Alternately, if we break down below the 0.69 level, the market probably drops to the 0.6850 level, and then eventually the 0.68 handle after that. A breakdown below the 0.68 handle should send this market to the downside rather quickly, as it would be a significant breakthrough of support. At that point, I anticipate that the New Zealand dollar would go looking towards the 0.65 handle next. The market continues to be very volatile, and of course the New Zealand dollar is probably the least liquid of the major currencies. Because of this, volatility is to be expected and of course we have the usual issues when it comes to liquidity, and beyond that, issues with any type of trouble in the commodity markets. Ultimately, I am bearish of this market, but I do recognize we may have a little bit of upside between now and the selling opportunity. Smaller position sizes are recommended currently as we sort things out.

USD/CAD Price Forecast November 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially fell against the Canadian dollar, dropping below the 1.27 handle again, but we found plenty of support below, and shot through the 1.27 level without much trouble afterwards. We are starting to see a little bit of a push back, but it looks as if the markets are ready to continue to go higher, and I believe that the 1.27 level will continue to be an area of contention and support. If we are to break down significantly, we need to clear the 1.2650 level to feel confident of a move to the 1.25 handle underneath. In general, I believe that the market is trying to break out to the upside in a clearance of the 1.2750 level would be a “W pattern” on the hourly chart being completed, and should send this market much higher. In fact, at that point I would expect the market would go looking towards the 1.30 level after that, as it is a large, round, psychologically important number, and of course a very juicy target for the bullish.
I do believe that if we break down, the 1.25 level will offer plenty of support, and I think at this point will offer a bit of a “floor” in the market. I also believe that the oil markets will continue to be the main driver of this market, and if oil roles over significantly, and I think it could some time relatively soon as show producers are jumping back into the marketplace, that should send this market higher as well. Again though, I’m a buyer but 1.2750, and a seller below 1.2650. In the meantime, I suspect that we are going to see a lot of noise in this general vicinity as we sort things out.

USD/JPY Price Forecast November 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen during most of the session on Monday, as we continue the downward pressure. Now that we have cleared the 111.50 level, I believe that the market is going to continue to go down towards the bottom of the overall consolidation area, that we have been in for several months, if and extends down to the 108 handle. This will be especially true as the US Congress cannot seem to pass significant tax bills. Ultimately, it’s not until we break above the 112 level on a daily close that I would be willing to buy now that we have made this breakdown. That is unless of course we formed some type of supportive action near the 108 handle, which has been so important and supportive in the past. I believe that the market will turn around is the US Congress can do its job finally.
In the meantime, I think it’s a “sell the rallies” situation, as we continue to see the US dollar get beaten up around the world. The Japanese yen is of course considered to be a safety currency anyway, and I think the given enough time we could see some type of safety move anyway. On the hourly chart, we are starting to form a shooting star at the 111.25 level, which was previously supportive, and should now be resistive. A breakdown to the 110 level is probably the next move, and then a move down below the 110 level almost certainly opens the door to the 108 handle. In general, I think there will continue to be a lot of volatility, but a general downward pressure seems to be the case in a market that has certainly been very choppy.

AUD/USD Price Forecast November 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar did very little during the trading session on Friday, as we are testing the 0.7625 level. That being the case, the market looks likely to try to figure out where to go from here first thing in the morning, but when I look at the hourly chart it’s hard not to notice that we are approaching the oversold condition in the stochastic oscillator, and could be possibly trying to form a “cup and handle” pattern. If we break out above the 0.7650 level, that signifies that we could be moving to the 0.7750 level above, which is the beginning of significant resistance. That would make sense, because the market needs to build up momentum to break down significantly from here anyway, as we have been rather bearish as of late. So, this point I am buying a breakout above the 0.7650 level, at least for the short term. Alternately, if we were to break down below the 0.7550 level, then we would have a very negative looking market, and one cannot forget the correlation to gold.
I think in order to make this market one you can start buying, pay attention to gold and if it can break above the $1300 level, I think that we could see the Australian dollar show signs of significant bullish pressure. I believe that the market needs a little bit of help, as we have struggled to sustain movements in either direction as of late. However, if we were to see the goal market break out, it would confirm a bottoming pattern that I am paying attention to that market, and that of course means that people will be throwing money at the Australians to buy more of the precious metal as Australia’s the world’s largest exporter.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast November 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair pulled back initially during the trading session on Friday, but found enough support near the 0.89 level to rally significantly and reach towards the 0.8950 handle. The 0.90 level above is the top of the overall consolidation, so it’s likely that we will struggle at that area again, but if we can rally above that level, the market should continue to go to the 0.93 level after that. Pullbacks of this point should continue to be nice buying opportunity as we have seen such strength in the EUR, and I believe that the uncertainty in the United Kingdom will continue to weigh against the British pound. I think that given enough time, the market should continue to be bullish, but we may have the occasional pullback offering an opportunity to pick up a bit of value.
I believe that the 0.88 level underneath is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation area, and that it is the floor in the market. If we did somehow break down below that level, then the market will unwind but right now it appears that the buyers are starting to take control, and certainly and upside surprises much more likely. Longer-term, most pundits that I speak to expect parity to be tested, and quite frankly I would be surprised if that happened. That’s something that will be for 2018, but in the meantime, we are trying to build up the necessary momentum to finally leave the 0.90 level in the rearview mirror. This will take a lot of work, so I believe a lot of choppiness and several pullbacks are in our future. By using these pullbacks, you can build up a large position to take advantage of the likely breakout that we will see

EUR/USD Price Forecast November 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair rallied again on Friday, as we have broken above the 1.19 handle. Because of this, the market looks likely to continue to rally longer-term, and I believe that pullbacks should offer plenty of value the people will take advantage of. The 1.1850 level just below is the first support level, and I think that any pullback to that area could offer a nice opportunity to take advantage of what has been an explosive move over the last 3 days. The 1.17 level underneath is the “floor” in the market, and I think that the buyers are looking to go towards the 1.21 handle above which is the recent highs. A break above the 1.21 handle should send this market much higher, and free the EUR to extend the run much higher.
I think that there could be a bit of volatility over the next couple of sessions, as the US Congress has come into focus. The inability to pass significant tax legislation should continue to weigh against the value of the US dollar. If that’s going to continue to be the case, then obviously this is a market that you can’t short. Currently, it looks as if the market is prepared to extend rallies going forward, but one thing you should keep in mind is that liquidity would’ve been an issue towards the end of the day on Friday, so the move may have been a bit exaggerated. Once liquidity comes back into the marketplace, we may see a bit more choppiness, but I still believe in the overall health of the rally, as this week has been very good to the buyers. By adding to your position on dips, you should be able to have a large position on the eventual break out.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast November 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the 149 handle, an area that has been resistance. I think that in general the market continues the consolidation, and I believe that the market could roll over from here and go looking towards the 148 handle again. Alternately, if we do continue to rally from here, the market probably goes looking towards the 150 handle, as it is a massive resistance barrier. The noise in this market continues to be extraordinarily volatile, and I believe that the risk appetite will have a major influence on where we go next. I think that the British pound is trying to break out to the upside against many currencies right now, but the Japanese yen will be a bit of an outlier, as any type of “risk off” attitude will favor the yen.
I believe that using a secondary indicator such as the Stochastic Oscillator to identify overbought and oversold conditions along with basic support and resistance could be the best way to trade this market. In general, the market should continue to be one that you should use small positions in though, because of the difficult nature. I think that we will continue to see this market trying to build up some type of momentum and breakout, but right now I think that you are probably better served assuming that the consolidation continues, because it’s going to take some type of assertive breakout of the British pound in other markets to translate to bullish pressure here. If we do break down from here, meaning below the 147.50 level, the market will probably go looking towards the 145-handle underneath which is significant support. Expect noisy conditions regardless of which direction we go.

GBP/USD Price Forecast November 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially fell slightly during the day on Friday, and then bounced significantly to clear the 1.3333 level. However, we turned back around to test that area and then ended up forming a hammer on the hourly chart. Because of this, I believe that the market will probably try to rally today, as this is an area that has been resistance in the past. The fact that we are closing towards that level at the end of the Friday session tells me that any bit of bullish pressure at the open on the session probably clears that area, and sends the British pound looking towards the 1.35 handle above, and then eventually the 1.3650 level after that. There is a massive gap there on the weekly chart, and because of that I believe that breaking of that level would be a longer-term “buy-and-hold” scenario.
The meantime, I believe that every time we rally and pull back, those pullbacks will be buying opportunities that we can take advantage of by adding incrementally, we can build up a large position for the eventual buy-and-hold situation, and benefit from what could be a multi-your trade. Alternately, if we were to break down below the 1.32 level, the market could then go looking towards the 1.30 level after that. In general, I do prefer the upside, mainly because of the US dollar falling and suffering at the hands of the U.S. Congress not being able to pass significant tax reform. Because of this, I believe that we will continue to see buyers in this market, and that selling the pair is very unlikely to be prudent. This isn’t to say that we won’t get significant pullbacks, I anticipate those, but again look at it as value.

NZD/USD Price Forecast November 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar went back and forth during the trading session on Friday, testing the 0.69 level above. That’s an area that has attracted a lot of attention lately, as we have failed to break above there significantly several times. However, even if we break above the 0.69 level, I think that the 0.70 level above is even more resistive. I’m looking for some type of exhaustion to take advantage of and start shorting the kiwi dollar as it has been so bearish as of late. I think that the Labour party election will continue to weigh upon the New Zealand dollar as people are concerned about the spending of the New Zealand government. In fact, it’s not until we break above the 0.70 level that I would be convinced to start buying.
I suspect that we are trying to build up enough momentum to finally break down below the 0.68 handle, which of course is a very negative sign. At that point, I anticipate that the New Zealand dollar goes looking for the 0.65 level underneath there, and perhaps even lower than that. The kiwi dollar should continue to be very volatile, regardless of which direction we go. I do not believe that we will have an easy time of breaking above the 0.70 level, so I’m currently looking for selling opportunities more than anything else. Remember, the New Zealand dollar is highly sensitive to not only risk appetite, but also commodity markets in general. If they struggle, the New Zealand dollars going to find a very hard market to deal with, and with the massive selloff that we have seen of late, I suspect that the momentum still favors the downside and therefore I like selling rallies more than anything else.

USD/CAD Price Forecast November 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar was a very volatile against the Canadian dollar during the Friday session, but that’s not a huge surprise considering most Americans were away from their trading desk, and that of course is most of the volume in this pair. As we continue to dance around the 1.27 level, I think that we are trying to find enough momentum to go in one direction or the other, and I think that a move above the 1.2750 level should signify that we are going to go looking towards the 1.2830 level next. Alternately, if we break down below the 1.2675 level, the market should move back down to the 1.25 handle. Remember, crude oil has a significant influence on the Canadian dollar, so if the market starts to rally we could see more bearish pressure in this market. I believe that the pair will remain very choppy, and as Friday would’ve been missing a lot of volume, I don’t read too much into the move.
On some type a breakout, I’d be willing to start going long and adding on short-term dips. I would be cautious and start out with smaller positions as I think the noise will be very difficult to deal with. In general, I believe that the volatility will be difficult to deal with, but if you have the ability to trade binary options, you could trade the market that way. Ultimately, I think that a breakdown would probably have a lot of momentum to it, and reaching towards the 1.25 level rather rapidly. Pay attention to oil and of course the Canadian housing market, as both will have a massive influence. In general, I would point out that we have made a higher high on the weekly chart, so it’s likely that we should continue to find plenty of support.

USD/JPY Price Forecast November 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar rallied slightly against the Japanese yen on Friday, and what would have been relatively light volume as Americans were away celebrating the thanks giving holiday. The market has a significant amount of resistance built-in at the 112 level, as it was significant support previously. I suspect at this point we will see exhaustion above, and that exhaustion could be sold. If we stay below the 112 level, that signifies that the market may go looking towards the bottom of the overall consolidation, which is the 108 handle. That would be a major move, and could be a move that you can start selling aggressively. However, if we were to turn around and break above the 112 handle on a daily close, I think that the market would go looking towards the 114.50 level above, which is the beginning of significant resistance to the 115 handle above. If we can break above the 115 handle, the market should then go to the 118.50 level. In general, I think that the market will probably remain volatile, as the US dollar is suffering at the hands of the U.S. Congress not being able to pass a tax bill.
In general, the markets look likely to need to make a decision relatively soon, so a fresh, new low or an exhaustive candle in this general area should be a nice selling opportunity down to the 108 handle, just as a break above the 112.50 level would show the market looking for the 114.50 level but this would be a slower move in my estimation. Pay attention to the 10-year treasury notes, if the interest rates continue to climb, that should help the US dollar against the Japanese yen. I suggest that a small position is necessary until we get some type of clarity. As soon as we get the clarity, adding to your position as possible.

EUR/USD Price Forecast November 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair rose slightly during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the 1.1850 level. The market has been rallying as of late, and I think at this point it’s likely that it continues to be a “buy on the dips” situation, and I think that the 1.17 level underneath continues to be the “floor” of the market. I like dips as they offer value, and I believe that the market breaking above the neckline of the previous head and shoulders pattern signifies that we are going to reach towards the highs at 1.21 next. Beyond that, the weekly chart is showing a bullish flag, which measures for a move all the way to 1.32 over the longer term.
The market should continue to favor the upside as U.S. Congress failures to write tax reform has put a lot of weight upon the US dollar. Right now, it looks as if we could find values on dips, and I think that longer-term traders are starting to hold on to the Euro in general. If we get some type of substantial tax reform, it’s likely that the market could pull back. However, I think that traders are starting to believe that the tax reform bill will probably be less than hoped for. In general, this is a market that continues to be volatile, but most certainly bullish. I expect a lot of noise, but with patience and proper position sizing, I think we could be looking at a longer-term trend change for good.
That being said, it is going to be very difficult over the next couple of months, as the ECB is looking to extend quantitative easing while the Federal Reserve is looking to tighten. While this should favor the downside move, traders are starting to worry about US politics more than anything else.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast November 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound chop around against the Japanese yen during the session on Thursday again, testing the 148 handle for support. So far, it has found it there, and I think that support extends down to the 147.50 level. Because of this, it’s likely that we could bounce but I think that the general downtrend continues, and that as we rally, it’s more than likely going to attract more selling pressure. While the British pound has shown some signs of strength, the reality is that this pair is much more attuned to risk appetite around the world, which seems to be flattening out a bit. A quick and nimble trader could trade back and forth between the 149.25 level in the 148 handle, but quite frankly this pair does have a history of breaking out rather violently in one direction or the other, and I do not want to be on the wrong side of that trade.
If we were to break down below the 147.50 level, I think at that point it opens the door to the 145 handle. That of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number that should attract a lot of attention. However, I think that we are in more of a choppy yet slightly negative market overall, so a rally from this area would not surprise me. I would look near the 148.50 level for the next selling opportunity, and of course the 149 level after that.
Don’t forget to pay attention to the GBP/USD pair, as it is the benchmark of British pound strength. If we start to see a lot of buying pressure over there, it could translate into higher pricing here as well. Of course, the exact opposite can happen also as you know.

NZD/USD Price Forecast November 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar had a bit of a rally during the trading session on Thursday, testing the 0.69 level for resistance. We did find it, and pulled back slightly. It looks as if we may return to the downward pressure and downtrend if we can break below the 0.6860 handle. At that point, the 24 hour exponential moving average will have flipped again, and it looks like we may be building up momentum to break down below the 0.68 handle underneath. A move below that level and substantial follow-through could send the New Zealand dollar down to the 0.65 handle over the longer term. However, keep in mind that the United States is currently in the midst of one of his biggest holidays of the year, so liquidity will be thin during that timeframe. The US dollar was left a bit undefended during the day, but I have to say that I’m not overly impressed by the rally that the kiwi managed.
Ultimately, I think that we will continue to go lower, and that it’s only a matter of time before we break down. With the Federal Reserve looking a raise interest rates later in the year, this makes quite a bit of sense, and I think that the 0.65 thing will more than likely happen. However, if we were to break above the 0.6920 level, then we probably need to go to the 0.70 level next to go looking for substantial selling pressure. This market has a lot of concerns, not the least of which is New Zealand itself, as there are a lot of concerns about overspending buy a new Labour government. Ultimately, I believe in selling the rallies going forward and what has been a very substantial move to the downside.

USD/JPY Price Forecast November 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar did very little against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as American celebrated Thanksgiving. We are sitting just above the 111 level, which is a bit of a psychological barrier, but breaking down significantly below the 112 level for me was the bigger story here, as it was supportive, but quite frankly we are in a much longer-term consolidation area between 114.50 and 108. I think this point, a breakdown below the 111 level simply said means that were to go down to the 110 level next, and then perhaps a bounce to offer another rally to sell. It is not until we break above the 112 level that I’m willing to buy this pair currently, although I recognize that a buying opportunity near the 108 handle would be excellent.
That’s not to say that it won’t be volatile on the way down, and most certainly will be as this pair is highly influenced by risk appetite, but quite frankly I think a lot of what is working here is that people are disappointed by Congress and its inability to pass a tax bill. That’s one of the major reasons why the Republicans have control of both houses, and quite frankly the fact that they could not get it done is a bit perplexing. That weighs upon the US dollar, and it’s not until we get some type of substantial reform, or some other type of catalyst that this market will rally. I believe that sets up for a nice pullback, and a return to the bottom of the consolidation now that we have broken through the technical support at the 112 level. In general, this is a market that will remain volatile, but I think it’s likely we will see more selling than buying.

AUD/USD Price Forecast November 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied during the trading session on Thursday, as American traders were a way for Thanksgiving. This led to a bit of thin trading later in the day, but quite frankly with the US dollar and defended we could not break out to the upside, which solidifies to me that we are most certainly in a negative trend. It looks as if we are trying to roll over a little bit, and if we were to break down below the 0.76 level again, I think that the 0.75 level will be targeted as it was just a few days ago. A breakdown below that level gets things looking very bearish, and of course gold needs to rally for the Australian dollar to pick up strength longer-term for what I can see.
The Federal Reserve raising interest rates towards the end of the year is of course going to help the US dollar, but if they look bullish enough to raise rates a couple of times going forward, that should really start to extend the selling pressure. If we do break above current levels right now, we could go as high as 0.7750, where I expect to see even more bearish pressure based upon longer-term charts and the significance of that region. I am a seller of the Australian dollar, and I don’t have any interest in buying currently, although I do recognize that the short-term buying opportunity does exist. Fundamentally speaking, the US dollar should continue to strengthen, and if we get any type of geopolitical concern or disruption, it’s likely that the Australian dollar will get pummeled as well. In general, I believe that selling the rallies continues to be the way to go, but we do of course need some type of confirmation.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast November 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair rally during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the 0.89 handle. A break above there should send this market towards the 0.90 level again, as it is the top of the larger consolidation area that we have been trading in. A break above the 0.90 level is a very bullish sign and should send this market to the 0.93 handle. I like buying pullbacks, because quite frankly it offers value in a currency pair that has been very strong. I recognize that the European Union is quite a bit more stable in the eyes of traders, as the United Kingdom has a bit less clarity when it comes to the future. I think that is one of the main drivers of this pair, and this recent pullback has been a nice opportunity to pick up value. However, I think that we will probably struggle to break above the .90 level, as we have been in consolidation, and is very likely that the uncertainty will continue to be a major issue, keeping traders of out of the market in general.
The 0.88 level underneath is massively supportive, and it’s not until we break down below there that I would be concerned about the consolidation or the uptrend. That’s an area that has been important several times, and I think it should continue to be the case. If we were to break down below there though, the 0.86 level would be the next target as it was supportive in the past. In general, this is a market that continues to show quite a bit of volatility, but more importantly for me: it shows value on dips and therefore that’s how I’m going to continue to trade with an eye to the upside.

GBP/USD Price Forecast November 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound and tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but struggled at the 1.3333 level. This is an area that I think being broken to the upside would be an extraordinarily bullish sign, and perhaps send in the market to the 1.35 handle, and then the ultimate level, the 1.3650 level which was the scene of the breakdown after the surprise vote to leave the European Union. I believe that the pullback that we are witnessing now is probably an attempt to build up the necessary momentum to finally break out. I look at the 1.3250 level as very supportive, as there is a lot of order flow near there and I think that the market should find plenty of buyers there. I think that once we break above the 1.3333 level, I’ll be adding to a long position, as I am hoping to have a large position once we finally break out above the 1.3650 level in a more “buy-and-hold” strategy.
In general, dips continue to be buying opportunities but if we were to break down below the 1.32 handle, it’s likely that we would continue to see selling pressure to send the market even lower, perhaps finding the 1.30 level after that, which should be massively supportive. I think that the US dollar will continue to struggle against most currencies though, as the US Congress can’t seem to pass tax reform, which is something that helped the greenback previously as the Republican administration looked to be very business friendly. I do believe that eventually the British pound rallies much higher, because we are historically cheap, regardless of the move out of the European Union. In general, I’m a buyer but I recognize that picking the right spot is paramount.

USD/CAD Price Forecast November 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar was initially sideways against the Canadian dollar during the trading session on Thursday, bouncing around the 1.27 level. We broke down slightly, but then broke well above that level again. I think a lot of the move was due to the lack of volume when it comes to the pair, as the Thanksgiving Day holiday would have Americans away from their desks, giving us an opportunity to move the markets with very little in the way of volume. I look at this market is one that should continue to rally though, and I look at dips as potential buying opportunities, especially after the impulsive green candle on the hourly chart. As we have seen a significant pullback lately, the 1.27 level is an area that I’ve been paying attention to for some time, and I think that the area should lead to the 1.30 level, especially if the crude oil market roles over for any reason.
Remember the correlation between the WTI Crude Oil market and the Canadian dollar remain strong, and in verse from the USD/CAD pair. I think that we will go looking towards the 1.28 level next, but we need to be careful about putting too much money into the market in one trade, and I believe that it’s probably best to simply add slightly as we go along. Longer-term, I look at the 1.30 level is the target, but it is going to take a while to get there. This is especially true considering that there are lot of back and forth type of traders in the oil markets, which of course the Canadian dollar is a proxy for. Interest rates rising in the United States should continue to lift this market, and of course I am paying attention to the housing bubble in the Toronto area.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast November 23, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair has been choppy during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see the market tried to turn around to the upside. Ultimately, I believe that pullbacks offer buying opportunities, and the 0.88 level underneath is massively supportive on the longer-term charts. I believe that we are essentially going through consolidation right now, meaning that we will go back towards the top of this range, at the 0.90 level above. A break above there should send this market towards the 0.93 level, as it is the recent high. I believe that a lot of traders will favor the European Union over the United Kingdom and the short-term, because there is more certainty with that region. The market has been in an uptrend for some time, and the pullbacks continue to be buying opportunities.
However, if we were to break down below the 0.88 handle, that would be very negative and send this market much lower, perhaps down to the 0.86 level first, as it is the next major support level underneath. In general though, I believe that we continue to go higher, and that we should have no issues finding buyers on these dips. Although this pair is going to be noisy, I prefer to go long in small increments to build up a larger position. With the choppiness that we have right now, there’s not a huge need to pile in immediately, and I believe that adding incrementally gives you the ability to take advantage of the trend, while protecting your account because of the choppiness. This pair does tend to grind away, so you need to be patient enough to trade it. If we do fall from here, I would look for supportive action near the 0.88 level to take advantage again. A breakdown below the 0.8750 level is the signal that the 0.88 level has given way.

AUD/USD Price Forecast November 23, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday, but found enough support near the 0.7550 level to bounce significantly and reach towards the opening price again. This is looking very much like a market that wants to put a hammer down for the day, and that of course is a very bullish sign. However, I think that there is a significant amount of noise between here and the 0.76 level to cause some issues. A break above the 0.76 level should clear the way to the vital 0.7750 level above, which is the beginning of a massive resistance barrier. And there is the issue, this market has far too many support and resistance levels and a relatively tight range.
Gold markets of course are not helping, they don’t seem to be ready to break out of larger consolidation either, and at this point I think that the Australian dollar may be very quiet over the next several weeks. As we get closer to the holidays, volatility will dry up, as traders will not be looking to put on huge positions before the end of the year. Speaking of holidays, today is Thanksgiving Day in the United States, so I anticipate that the markets will go dead quiet in late European trading as Americans will be away. All things being equal, I suspect that the market will try to make a move towards the 0.76 handle, but will also struggle in that region, and simply roll over for more choppy trading that seems to suit this pair currently. I still think that the 0.75 level underneath is a massive “floor” in the market, and a move below there would be extraordinarily bearish. Short-term range bound trading probably suits this pair the best right now.

EUR/USD Price Forecast November 23, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair went sideways at the beginning of the session on Wednesday, but then rallied a bit, only to turn around and fall towards the opening price, before rallying yet again. As I record this, we are testing the 1.18 handle, an area that has a certain amount of importance. I believe that we are going to continue to go higher, as breaking above the previous neckline of the head and shoulders on the daily chart was a very strong sign, and I also believe that there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the U.S. Congress being able to pass some type of meaningful legislation with tax reform. That being said, we also have quantitative easing coming out of the ECB, and that of course puts a bit of a weight around the neck of the Euro itself. Ultimately, I think that this pair continues to be choppy, but I also have a bullish flag marked out on the weekly chart that suggests that you could go to the 1.32 handle above. Longer-term, that has become my target.
I believe in buying pullbacks and dips, and recognize that we could continue to see choppiness, as the pair tends to be headline driven and of course manipulated by algorithmic trading. If we were to break down below the 1.17 level, that would be a very negative sign, and could send this market much lower. However, that becomes a less likely after the Wednesday action, as it shows the resiliency of the support and the buyers underneath. I recognize that the 1.21 level above is significantly resistive, so we may need to pull back several times to build up the necessary momentum to finally get above there. Once we do, becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast November 23, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound fell significantly during the day on Wednesday against the Japanese yen, as the Japanese yen strengthened in general. Because of this, we have reached down towards the 148 handle, where we are trying to stabilize. This move is interesting to me, because if the 148 level offers enough support, that could begin a range of consolidation more than anything else. Recently, we have been drifted lower in general, and I still favor the downside, but I also recognize that if this latest low ends up being higher than the previous one a couple of days ago, that could be a sign that momentum is starting to shift again. I still think that the 150 level above is a massive ceiling, so it’s difficult to buying this market for any length of time beyond a quick trade until we clear that area. However, if we break down below the 148 level, I think we will go to a fresh, new low, perhaps the 147.50 level. Rallies that show signs of exhaustion, well those are going to be selling opportunities as well. Remember, this is a risk sensitive pair, so if stock markets and risk appetite roles over, this pair should do the same.
However, if stock markets and risk appetite rises, that also influences this pair, and could make it go looking at the 150 level for an escape route. A break above that level has this market going to the 152 level next, and could begin more of a “buy-and-hold” scenario, or at least a “buy on the dips” scenario in this market. I believe that all things involving the British pound are going to be a bit rough to deal with over the next several weeks, so don’t be surprised if we go nowhere.

GBP/USD Price Forecast November 23, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound was very volatile during the trading session on Wednesday, as we initially tried to break above the 1.3250 level, but then pulled back to the 1.32 handle. At that point, the market shot through the 1.35 level cleanly, and now looks set to go much higher. Now that we have broken above this level, I believe that we are going to go looking towards the 1.35 level over the next several sessions. With the Thanksgiving holiday today, it’s likely that the US dollar will be somewhat undefended, and therefore it’s likely that the British pound can continue the bullish pressure. I also recognize that the uncertainty around the British economy leaving the European Union does put a little bit of an anchor around the neck of the pound, but longer-term I don’t see a reason as to why this market won’t go looking towards the 1.365 level again, which is the recent high.
If we were to fall from here, it’s not until we break down below the 1.32 level that I would think the sellers would take the upper hand. If that were to happen, and makes sense that we go looking towards the 1.30 level underneath. However, we have been grinding our way to the upside, and it looks as if the tenacity has finally paid off. With this in mind, I think short-term traders will continue to buy dips going forward, as they offer value. A break above the 1.3650 level is a very bullish sign, and sends this market to the 1.40 level above there, which is a major level on longer-term charts as well. In general, I think that the buyers are going to continue to be very aggressive. Ultimately, I believe that we have started to try to turn the trend around longer term.

NZD/USD Price Forecast November 23, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar initially fell on Wednesday, but we found enough support at the 0.6825 level to bounce and continue the sideways chomp that we have seen over the last couple days, although we do have a little bit of an upward bias. The 0.68 level underneath is a massive support level, so that’s not a huge surprise. I think that we are going to make some type of significant decision in this pair over the next several days, but I think the odds are that we continue to fall, as there are a lot of things weighing the New Zealand dollar down. Not the least of which is a reasonably soft commodity market, and of course Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations. I also recognize the 0.69 level above as being massive resistance, so I don’t think that any move to the upside is going to be easily taken.
My anticipated trading strategy for this pair is to wait for signs of exhaustion and start selling. I recognize we may need to bounce from the 0.68 level a bit farther, as it typically will take more momentum to break down through a level like that. Once we do though, the market could very well go down to the 0.65 level rapidly, as it would be a major breach of support. If that happens, I would become aggressively short of the kiwi dollar. Alternately, if we could break above the 0.6915 region, the market probably goes looking to the 0.70 level, which of course is structurally and psychologically important from both directions. In general, I am very leery of buying the kiwi dollar right now, I think that the recent selloff is a sign of the general attitude when it comes to commodity currencies.

USD/CAD Price Forecast November 23, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar rolled over against the Canadian dollar again on Wednesday, reaching towards the 1.27 level. The 1.27 level has been supportive in the past, and I think that it’s only a matter of time before the buyers return and push this market towards the upside. I believe that the volatility will continue, and of course oil will have it say when it comes to this market. Beyond that, it’s also likely that we will see noise over the next 48 hours, as North America goes dark. With the Thanksgiving holiday coming out today, it’s likely that the liquidity will dry up in the later hours of the session, and that will probably continue to be the case on Friday as well. With that, I would be very unlikely to put money to work in this pair, but I believe that a break below the 1.2650 level would be very negative, perhaps sending the market down to even lower levels, namely the 1.25 handle. A bounce from the 1.27 level is likely in my estimation though, and I would be more than willing to start buying at that point. I still believe that the Canadian dollar has a lot of inherent problems, not the least of which is the housing bubble.
In general, I think that volatility continues, and this pair does tend to be very choppy because of the proximity of the 2 countries and the highly leveraged relationship between them. Ultimately, I think that the pair will attract a lot of value hunting, and I think that we will eventually go looking towards the 1.30 level above, and then break above there to reach towards the 1.32 level after that. Overall, this is a very noisy market, but I think that the uptrend remains intact.

USD/JPY Price Forecast November 23, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar fell below the 112 level again against the Japanese yen, breaking below the previous low. That of course is a significantly negative signal, telling me that the pair is probably going to go back towards the bottom of the consolidation area that has been a long-term factor in this pair, the 108 handle. At this point, I believe that every time we make a fresh, new low, it’s time to start selling again and in small increments as we can build up a larger position to the downside. I think that the 108 level will be difficult to crack to the downside though, so it’s more than likely going to be an issue where it offers an opportunity between now and the end of the year, as traders are starting to worry about tax reform and if it will ever happen.
However, once we get to the 108 level, I’d be more than willing to jump into this market with 2 hands and serve buying the US dollar again because of the massive support that we have seen there. Alternately, if we were to turn around and break above the 112.70 level, then I think that the market could find more bullish pressure, perhaps reaching towards the 114.50 level again, which of course has been massive resistance. I think that if the US Congress does something with the tax bill though, that is very likely to happen. I do think that eventually they get something done, but right now it looks as if more stagnation is to be expected. With this in mind, I believe that the downside is probably the more likely of the 2 scenarios that I see.

AUD/USD Price Forecast November 22, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, using the RBA announcement as a bit of a catalyst. However, there are several other reasons that the market is going to continue to struggle. The 0.76 level above looks to be offering resistance, and now that we have rallied to that area, the hourly chart is showing signs of exhaustion on the stochastic oscillator. If we get a roll over from here, essentially a move below the 0.7560 handle, I think we will go back down towards the 0.75 level, and make another attempt to break down below there. Once we do close below that level, the market goes down to the 0.7350 level. Alternately, a move above the 0.76 level should send this market towards the 0.77 handle after that.
In general, I think we continue to see bearish pressure, as gold hasn’t exactly taken off to the upside, and of course there is a strong chance that we see several interest rate hikes coming out of the United States, which of course drives demand for the US dollar. With a lack of demand for gold longer-term, and of course the US dollar strengthening, we could continue to fall from here. I also recognize there is a massive amount of resistance that extends at several different levels to the 0.80 level, and therefore I think that it’s difficult to buy the Australian dollar anytime soon.
I believe volatility will continue to be a major issue in this market, and typically when there’s a lot of volatility like this, scared money runs towards the US dollar. I believe that we continue bearish in general, and by being patient and waiting for exhaustion, you can profit by shorting the Aussie dollar.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast November 22, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair has essentially gone back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, hovering around the 0.8860 level. The market continues to be very difficult to deal with for many of my trading friends, as the choppiness is extraordinarily strong here. I think that if the market continues to drop from here, we will find plenty of support at the 0.88 level underneath, which has been important on longer-term charts as well. I think that a bounce from there makes a lot of sense, as it would be a continuation of the overall consolidation that we have seen for some time. Remember, most of what is driving this pair will be headlines coming out of both London and the European Union, circling around the idea of the breakaway of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
I think that ultimately, we will go higher, but concerns about the Germans not being able to form a coalition government could weigh upon the Euro itself. That makes sense for a move down to the 0.88 level as well, and then eventually I think find buyers as people realize that the Germans not forming a coalition government isn’t fatal. I also believe that there is support extending down below the 0.88 level as well, as it is more of a zone. I don’t think we will break above the 0.90 level though, at least not in the short term, as their far too many questions. However, we will eventually break above the 0.90 level, and extend to the 0.93 level given enough time, which has been the highs from the previous surge higher. Volatility continues, but with a longer-term upward bias as there is more clarity in the European Union and the United Kingdom.

EUR/USD Price Forecast November 22, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been rather stagnant during the trading session on Tuesday, initially going sideways and then dipping towards the 1.1720 level. I think that the 1.17 level continues to be very supportive, so I am looking for buying opportunities. However, there are a lot of concerns about the inability of the Germans to form a coalition government. This of course has a lot of negativity when it comes to the Euro itself, as Germany as such a large player in the European Union. I suspect that eventually we will get some clarity, so it’s likely that we will be able to place a longer-term trade relatively soon. However, in the meantime I think it’s likely that we will continue to move based purely on technical moves. If we bounce from the 1.17 level, I think that we will eventually go to the 1.18 handle. Alternately, if we break above the 1.1750 level, the market probably goes there as well.
On the other hand, if we break down below the 1.1675 handle, it’s likely that we drop down to the 1.16 handle underneath, and then a move below there would of course in this market even lower, perhaps to the 1.15 level, a psychologically important handle. News flow will highly influence here, but we also have the Federal Reserve looking a raise interest rates so that can put more downward pressure here as well.
Overall, I think that we are going to see a lot of choppiness between now and the end of the year, especially as we get closer to the holidays. Speaking of which, Thanksgiving is on Thursday, and it’s likely that the liquidity may dry up a bit over the next several sessions. That may keep this market reasonably quiet.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast November 22, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound has been very choppy over the last 24 hours against the Japanese yen after initially surging higher on Monday. However, we are starting to see a bit of resistance above, and is not until we break above the 149.50 level that the market is free to reach towards the 150 handle after that. I believe that the 150 handle is a massive “ceiling” in the market, so I’m very hesitant to buy this pair until we get above that level. In the meantime, I’m looking for exhaustive candle’s and rollovers to start selling this market. In fact, as we have drifted a little bit lower during the day on Tuesday, I think we may be getting ready to see that. That should send this market looking down to the 147.75 handle again, and perhaps even lower if history is any indicator.
The British pound of course is highly sensitive right now to headlines involving the negotiations between London and Brussels, but this pair is also very sensitive to risk appetite. If we start to seat trader selloff stock markets and commodities, that could send this market lower as well, running to the relative safety of the Japanese yen. Alternately, if we were to break above the 150 handle, the market continues to go higher from there, and my target would be the 152.50 level above which has offered resistance in the past. Ultimately, this is a market that will remain very volatile and choppy, and not the least of which: dangerous. Small position size is crucial, at least until we break down or break out with some type of significance. Volatility will be very sudden and brutal at times, but that is typical of this pair in general.

GBP/USD Price Forecast November 22, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound has been very choppy over the last several sessions, bouncing from the 1.32 level underneath, which offers support. The uptrend line on the hourly chart looks very likely to be supportive as well, and I think that it’s only a matter of time before we build the necessary bullish pressure to break out to the upside. However, if we were to break below the 1.32 level, it’s likely that there will be more selling pressure, down towards the 1.31 level underneath. The market continues to be choppy and negative, but I think that eventually we which will go towards the 1.35 level above, which of course is a psychological figure. Longer-term though, the 1.3650 level is much more significant resistance, and we need to break above there to start buying from a longer-term perspective. Until then, it’s likely that we will continue to see short-term “buy on the dips” moves.
In general, I believe that the British pound will continue to find plenty of reasons to go higher, but I’m also aware that the Federal Reserve is very likely to raise interest rates. I think that we are going to see this market go much higher longer-term, but there’s obviously a lot of work to do. After all, the British pound was absolutely slaughtered after the surprise vote to leave the European Union. It takes a while to build confidence after that type of melt down, which I think we have been doing over the last several months. It’s going to take a lot of work, but I think that longer-term investors are willing to hang on to the British pound. For short-term traders, buying on the dips and taking profits quickly is probably the best way to trade the market. I have no interest in shorting, at least above the 1.32 handle.

NZD/USD Price Forecast November 22, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar went sideways initially during the trading session on Tuesday, bouncing from the 0.68 level. However, although it looks as if we are forming a bit of a base, the reality is I think that the prudent trader will look for shorting opportunities on rallies, and on the first signs of exhaustion. The 0.69 level above should be massively resistive, and I think that eventually we will break down below the 0.68 level. A breakdown below there, the market should continue to go down to the 0.65 level, an area that is very important on longer-term charts. If we were to break above the 0.69 level, the market could then go to the 0.70 level above there, which is certainly much more important on longer-term charts and of course from psychological precedents as well.
The New Zealand dollar continues to be very sensitive to the commodity markets, so course we will have to pay attention to how most soft commodities are performing. If we do continue the volatility, that favors the US dollar anyway, because the bottle markets almost always favor safety, and out of the pair of currencies, the US dollar is certainly considered to be the “safer one.”
I’m simply waiting for signs of exhaustion to start shorting again, as not only do we have concerns and some of the commodity markets, but we also have spending concerns when it comes to New Zealand itself, and of course rising interest rates in the United States simultaneously. Because of this, I believe that there is much more downside potential than up, although we have certainly fallen quite far in a short amount of time, so that means perhaps we need to rally simply to build up enough momentum to break down through the massive support.

USD/CAD Price Forecast November 22, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar has been extraordinarily volatile against the Canadian dollar during the trading day on Tuesday. Because of this, the market is likely to cause a lot of trouble for traders who can handle the volatility, but I think that longer-term we still have plenty of buying pressure underneath, as on the hourly chart we have formed a bit of a hammer where one could imagine a pseudo-trend line. Because of this, and the fact that it was at the 1.2750 level, I think we will continue to see buyers pick up the US dollar on dips, as oil of course will remain very volatile. We do get the Crude Oil Inventories announcement coming out during the day today, so it’s possible that we may see more volatility in this pair. However, I think that we probably won’t, mainly because of the things giving holiday coming up on Thursday, and the Americans being away for several days. Most of the volume in this pair is traded in North America, so obviously that is going to have a significant influence.
I believe that the market is going to go looking towards the 1.30 level above, which should be significant resistance, based upon psychological importance. We also have a certain amount of structural resistance there on longer-term charts, and I think that the market breaking above there would be a very significant signal to go long on a longer-term “buy-and-hold” trade. In the meantime, I like buying short-term pullbacks, as I think there is more than enough interest in this pair going higher. The 1.27 level underneath is supportive as well, and I think that will offer buying opportunities as well. This continues to be a market that I have no interest in shorting.

USD/JPY Price Forecast November 22, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar drifted a bit lower during the day on Tuesday, drifting down towards the 112 level. The 112 level has been supportive in the past, and as a result it’s likely that the buyers are coming back in based upon value. However, the longer-term consolidation area has been between the 115 level at the top, and the 108 level at the bottom. The 112 level has been important occasionally, so I think that this is a very important level that we find ourselves at. If we break down below the 111.80 level, the market is likely to reach down to the 108 handle. At that point, I am more than willing to start selling, but I also recognize that in this area could offer enough support to turn things back around and reach towards the 114.50 level again.
The volatility could be somewhat brutal as we are approaching the things giving holiday in the United States, and that will dry up quite a bit of liquidity, so we may have sudden moves out of nowhere. However, I think that longer-term we will eventually break out to the upside, and beyond the 115 handle. The 112-level holding at this point would be a very good sign, as it would show that the longer-term consolidation failed to reach towards the bottom again, and that shows a significant pick up in the longer-term overall upward momentum. If we finally get our break out to the upside, we probably go to the 118 handle. I suspect that will be the case early next year, and in the meantime, I prefer buying on the dips, unless of course we break down below the previously mentioned 111.80 level. I would be willing to buy large amounts of US dollars down at the 108 handle.

AUD/USD Price Forecast November 21, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has been somewhat volatile during the trading session on Monday, remaining in a reasonably tight range. That’s not a huge surprise though, because we get the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes coming out first thing this morning, so at this point it’s likely that the Australian dollar will see a bit of volatility over the next 24 hours. Now that we have that coming out, I suspect that the next move will be dictated by that. A breakdown below the 0.75 level underneath should send this market down to lower levels, perhaps the 0.7350 level after that. That’s an area that should be important, and of course we will have to pay attention to the gold markets as they have a massive effect on this market. Right now, they don’t look as if they are ready to take off anytime soon, so I believe that we will continue to see downward pressure, unless of course the central bank surprises.
The 0.76 level above is resistance, and it’s not until we were to break above there that I think the market can pick up some momentum. If we were to break down from here, I suspect that the move would be somewhat rapid, and possibly vicious. The Australian dollar has a lot of headwinds facing it, not the least of which is a bit of a “risk off” attitude around the world. Stock markets have gotten a bit elevated, and volumes are dropping, then typically means that we could see a bit of a selloff when it comes to riskier assets, and the Australian dollar of course falls into that category. If we have trouble with Asian markets as well, that could also influence the Aussie dollar. I favor the downside, but am more apt to sell rallies than anything else.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast November 21, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair fell during the day on Monday, dropping down towards the 0.8880 level, and then went sideways in a violent back and forth manner on the hourly chart. We then fell again, and it looks as if we are ready to drop towards the 0.88 level underneath. That area has been important more than once, and as I had stated on Friday, I thought that we could perhaps be ready to enter consolidation again, with the 0.88 level offering massive support, and the 0.90 level above offering significant resistance. Because of this, I believe that we will drift towards the 0.88 level yet again, but historically this has been an area where buyers are willing to step back into the marketplace.
I’m looking for some type of bounce from the 0.88 level to start buying, and I believe that the market will offer an opportunity to go to the 0.90 level. Once we reach that area, I will look to the stochastic oscillator as a secondary indicator, offering the signs of oversold momentum, and then start buying again. I don’t know if we can break above the 0.90 level this next time, but I do think we eventually will as there is much more faith in what’s going to happen in the European Union than the United Kingdom after the split. However, with so much in the way of headline driven noise, it would make sense that we would have to consolidate yet again. There is no clear direction quite yet, but once we get it this pair could move rather drastically. A lot of pundits that I speak to still believe that we will eventually see the parity level tested once we get some type of resolution on the break up.

EUR/USD Price Forecast November 21, 2017, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been very volatile during trading on Monday, initially falling, then bouncing, then falling again as we approached the 1.18 level. A lot of the volatility is due to a failure by German government to form a coalition, which of course has a lot of people concerned that there might be another snap election. This has caused a lot of noise in the market, and that being the case it’s likely that could continue until we get some type of resolution. Germany is such a huge part of the European Union that it’s going to move the currency more than any other country. If there is political uncertainty or instability, that should continue to weigh upon the EUR in general. Beyond that, we have the European Central Bank with its extended quantitative easing Wayne upon the currency as well. We recently formed a massive head and shoulders, with a neckline at the 1.17 level underneath. However, we broke above there, so I think that has been negated, but it does not wipe out the support and resistance, just the pattern.
A breakdown below that level should send this market much lower, especially if we can break down below the 1.1650 level after that. We can find the market drifting down even lower, perhaps to the 1.13 level as suggested previously. I would think that the 1.15 level would also be supportive as well. However, I believe that the 1.17 level underneath should offer support, and therefore I would anticipate we could see a bounce. That bounce should send this market looking towards the 1.27 level above, and then the 1.21 level after that. I think regardless of what happens, were looking at a lot of volatility just waiting to happen in this market, moving with headlines.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast November 21, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound drift a little bit lower at the open on Monday, but found enough support at the 147.50 region to turn around and explode to the upside. As I record this, we are currently testing the 149 handle, an area that should be significant resistance. I believe there’s a lot of noise between here and the 150 handle, so I’m waiting for an opportunity to short signs of exhaustion on rallies, such as the one we find ourselves and now. After all, we have continued to make lower lows, and have yet to make a “higher high.” This is a very definition of a downtrend, but is also a very choppy market as “The Dragon” typically is. Keep in mind that this pair does tend to move with the overall risk appetite around the world, so if stock markets start to rally significantly, that could be good for this market as well. Obviously, the exact inverse is possible as well, as the Japanese yen tends to be thought of as a safety currency.
If we were to break above the 150 handle, at that point I think that the market could rally rather significantly, as it would clear a major barrier. By breaking above there, the market will probably go to the 152.50 level above, which has been massive resistance in the past. However, this would be a turn around and suggest that a move like that could send this pair much higher. I think that the British pound continue to have a lot of issues though, because quite frankly there’s a lot of uncertainty as a what happens next for the United Kingdom after leaving the European Union. Ultimately, I think this pair is going to be choppy regardless of which direction we go, but even with the move that we have seen on Monday, we are still in a downtrend.

GBP/USD Price Forecast November 21, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound initially fell during Monday, but then sliced through the 1.3250 level early in trading. We pulled back a bit, testing that area for support. But now it looks as if we are ready to consolidate in this general vicinity, and I think that if we can break above the surge during the trading session, I think that the market then goes towards the 1.35 level, the next psychologically important handle. It’s going to be very noisy, because we will have to keep an eye on the British pound and headlines coming out of the Brexit as well, but there is also Mark Carney and other members of the Bank of England testifying before Parliament today about inflation. That obviously has a massive effect on what happens with the British pound, and that of course is a main driver of Forex markets.
If we break down below the 1.32 level, I think that the pair will probably go down to the 1.3050 level next. Right now, it certainly looks as if the buyers are trying to make some type of statement as we have seen them come back into the market every time the paired dips. Above current trading areas, there is the 1.35 handle as mentioned previously, but there is also the 1.3650 level after that, which was the scene of a massive gap lower. If we were to break above there, we could go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 1.40 level later. It’s going to be very difficult to have that happen in the short term though, so I think we continue to see a lot of volatility and short-term opportunities at best. The pair continues to be very difficult, so smaller position sizing is preferable.