AUD/USD Forecast November 2, 2017, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the day on Wednesday, breaking above the 24-hour exponential moving average. The 0.77 level above is offering resistance, and I think currently we are doing nothing more than consolidating. The 0.7750 level above is even more resistance, and I think that the market will struggle to get above there. I’m waiting for some type of exhaustive move to start selling again, or breakdown below the 0.76 handle. At that point, the market goes looking towards the 0.75 level underneath, which should be structurally more important as it is a large, round, psychologically significant number. The US dollar continues to strengthen in general against most other currencies, but also play against gold trading, so if gold roles over as well, it’s likely that we go lower.
With the Federal Reserve having a meeting, we could get a bit of noise in the futures market when it comes to gold, and that could continue to be a major influence in this pair. Gold looks a bit soft in general, so I think that it’s likely that the Australian dollar will struggle longer term. The purple rectangle on the chart is massive resistance, as it was previously supportive. It’s not until we break above the 0.78 level that I would be willing to buy this pair. Until then, I prefer to sit on the sidelines and wait for opportunities to pick up value in the US dollar, shorting this pair on signs of failure. Longer-term, I anticipate that the US dollar is entering a phase of strength over all, and that of course continues to be a reason for this pair to fall, and until we break out to the upside, nothing changes in this pair as we have seen softness for several weeks.