NZD/USD Forecast November 2, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar rallied a bit during the Wednesday session, reaching towards the 0.6935 level. The market below find support at the 0.68 handle, so if we were to break down below there, I think that has the market rolling over, perhaps reaching down to the 0.65 handle. At this point though, it looks like the buyers are starting to step into the marketplace, as the 24-hour exponential moving average has shown a bit of support. If we continue to go higher, the 0.70 level above should be resistance, as it was previous support. I think the New Zealand dollar can rally a bit, but it’s only a matter of time before the sellers get involved. After all, the interest rate situation in the United States is looking higher, and with the Federal Reserve having a meeting now, it’s likely that we will see the US dollar show some signs of volatility. Nonetheless, I do favor the downside, at least if the 0.70 level could continue to be a bit of a “ceiling.”
If we were to break above the level, it’s likely that we would try to get to the 0.72 level, but right now it appears to me that the New Zealand dollar is on its back foot. I don’t have any interest in trying to go long until we clear the 0.70 level, so ultimately, it’s a wait and see type of situation, at least until I get exhaustion or an impulsive move lower. A breakdown below the 0.68 level has me not only short of this market, but adding to a negative position as the US dollar seems to be one of the most favored currencies in the major Forex markets. I hold a negative attitude in this market, but am awaiting confirmation to get involved.