NZD/USD Forecast November 3, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar initially rally during the day on Thursday, reaching towards the 0.6950 level, but then pulled back to the 0.69 handle before bouncing again. The market continues to be very volatile, and I believe that the 0.70 level above could be resistive, and I think that we will probably find sellers sooner rather than later. I think that the US dollar should continue to strengthen in general, and I think that the 0.68 level underneath is going to be massive support. If we can break down below there, the market should go lower, perhaps reaching down to the 0.65 level over the longer term. Pay attention to commodities, because they will have the usual influence on the New Zealand dollar. Alternately, if we can break above the 0.70 level, the market then could rally significantly, perhaps reaching to the 0.72 handle above.
Volatility continues to be a major issue with the New Zealand dollar, as it is one of the least liquid of the major currencies, but overall, I think that we are starting to see a lot of US dollar pressure, and that is due to the Federal Reserve looking likely to raise interest rates several times over the next several months. I recognize that the market will rally based upon risk appetite, but I think that most market participants are paying attention to the stronger US economy more than anything else. The volatility continues to be an issue, so you may wish to play very small positions as the market will almost undoubtedly bounce around after the announcement today. I’m still bearish, and quite frankly if we can rally significantly I would love to start selling at the first signs of major exhaustion. However, be patient, today can be very noisy.