NZD/USD Price Forecast November 21, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar rallied at the open on Monday, reaching as high as the 0.6838 level. Ultimately, this is an area that had previously offered support, so it’s not a huge surprise that it would offer some resistance now as we have drifted a little bit lower. I believe that this market is at a significant crossroads, as the 0.68 level has been extraordinarily important on the longer-term charts, and therefore I think that the volatility will remain a significant issue. There are a couple of trading opportunities that I might take advantage of, but right now I think it’s probably best to stay away from this market, as the volatility will be extraordinarily high, and of course daters for trading large amounts of money.
I believe that if we make a fresh, new low, then we can start selling with a little bit of aggression. I think at that point the market would probably go down to the 0.65 level underneath, which has been important on longer-term charts. Alternately, if we were to rally from here I think that the 0.69 level will continue to be a significant barrier above, and of course geopolitical concerns around the world has put a bit of a bid into the US dollar, not to mention that the Federal Reserve looks likely to raise interest rates. Obviously, commodity markets could help the New Zealand dollar, but right now I just don’t see that happening, with may be a significant exception in the crude oil market, which of course doesn’t have anything to do with New Zealand.
I believe that the volatility will continue, and that’s probably the one thing you can count on. I prefer the downside, but I need to see the market clear the vitals 0.68 region to do so.