NZD/USD Price Forecast November 6, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar went back and forth during the Friday session after the jobs number was less than anticipated. The market showing this type of noise suggests that we are going to continue to see a lot of trouble in this market. I believe that the New Zealand dollar will continue to struggle, as the New Zealand dollar tends to be very representative of the commodity sector. I believe that the 0.70 level above is massively resistive, and I think that if we were to break above there, then the New Zealand dollar should continue to go much higher. Any type of exhaustion above should be a selling opportunity, just as a breakdown below the 0.69 handle would be. A move to that level should send the market down to the 0.68 level given enough time. Ultimately, I think that this market is a “sell the rallies” type of situation just waiting to happen.
The Federal Reserve is looking very likely to raise interest rates several times over the next year, while the New Zealand government looks to be ramping up spending based upon the election results. This is essentially the same thing as quantitative easing when it comes to the currency markets, so I believe that the downward pressure is going to continue. A breakdown below the 0.68 level should send this market looking towards the 0.65 level underneath. The 0.65 level is important on longer-term charts, as it is a large, round, psychologically and structurally significant level. Because of this, I believe that we will target that level, but I also recognize that there is a lot of noise to be fighting through between now and then. Frankly, I don’t have much of an interest in buying this pair.