NZD/USD Price Forecast November 8, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar fell rather significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 0.69 level. This is an area that has offered support and resistance in the past, and I look at it as essentially “fair value” in the market currently. We have been trying to break out though, but it looks as if we are failing to continue going higher. If we were to break down below the 0.6880 level, at that point I think that the market will drop towards the 0.68 handle next. Keep in mind that the New Zealand dollar is a very sensitive currency when it comes to risk appetite and of course commodities, so I think that paying attention to both of these external factors will be crucial. If we continue to see concerns around the world geopolitically, this could send the market lower.
However, one thing that should also be kept in mind is that the Royal Bank of New Zealand has an interest rate announcement this morning. It’s likely that the interest rate announcement itself won’t be much of a surprise, but the statement that accompanies that could be. If the central bank looks at the global economy with suspicion, it’s likely that it will weigh upon the New Zealand dollar going forward. I suspect this could be the biggest concern that this currency will have in the short term. I think that the market rallying from here is also possible if there’s some type of surprise and the announcement or statement, but the 0.70 level above is massively resistive, and I don’t think that we will be a little break above there without some type of help. Overall, I think we continue to see a lot of lackluster performance, as the trading has been very sloppy.