USD/CAD Price Forecast November 15, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially fell against the Canadian dollar, but found enough support at the 1.27 level II bounce significantly. By forming a hammer on the hourly chart, we then broke towards the upside, reaching towards the 1.2750 level, and extending the bounce from there. It now looks as if the market is ready to make a serious attempt to break out to the upside and continue the uptrend that we had seen for months. The 1.27 level now offers a bit of a floor, extending down to the 1.2675 handle. Staying above the 1.27 level is crucial, as it gives us an opportunity to go to the 1.30 level after that. A move above the 1.30 level is more of a “buy-and-hold” scenario, as it should be an opportunity to benefit.
If we were to break down below the 1.2675 handle, the market will more than likely go looking towards the 1.25 handle, but we need to see oil rally significantly for that to happen in my estimation. The 1.25 level will be massively supportive, so I believe that will be the “bottom” of the market going forward. The Canadians have to worry about a housing bubble now, and that of course doesn’t help the situation either. If the United States Congress can do something about tax reform, that will supercharge the move to the upside, and send this market much higher. Regardless, I believe in buying rather than selling, and I think that today’s action is a bit of confirmation when it comes to the bullish sentiment. It will be noisy, but this pair typically is, so keep your position size reasonable, as the Crude Oil Inventories number coming out today in the United States will have its influence as well.