NZD/USD Price Forecast December 11, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar rallied initially during the trading session, looking exhaustive near the 0.6875 handle, but then rolled over to reach towards the 0.6840 level. I think that the most important level on this chart is the 0.68 handle, and if we can break down below there the New Zealand dollar could unwind to reach down towards the 0.66 handle in the short term. I think rallies continue to be selling opportunities, especially at the first signs of exhaustion. Keep in mind that the New Zealand dollar is highly influenced by the commodity markets in general, so if we can roll over in those markets, it’s likely that the New Zealand dollar will follow. However, I think one of the biggest influences on this market will be the interest rate statement coming out the Federal Reserve, and if hawkish enough it will send this market lower.
The 0.69 level above is resistance, and that is an area where I would be concerned about buying. I think that some type of exhaustion in that area would be an excellent selling opportunity, and it’s not until we break above the 0.70 level above that I would be a buyer. In general, I think that the overall “lower lows” will continue to be a sign of the weakness. I think that market participants continue to punish the New Zealand dollar due to the increased spending coming out of the country, with the election of the Labour Party. The overall attitude of this market is noisy and negative. Once we break down below the 0.68 level, I become aggressively short and in large size.

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