NZD/USD Price Forecast January 4, 2018, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar of course is highly sensitive to commodity markets, which have been a bit all over the place due to weather concerns in the grain markets. It is also sensitive to other commodity markets as well, as it is a general “barometer” of commodity markets, so I think that you can think of this as a “risk on/risk off” environment. The market should be supported below at the 0.70 level, and I think that we will eventually go looking towards the top of the overall range of the markets, with the 0.75 level being the ceiling, and the 0.68 level underneath being the floor. I believe that we are returning to the top of the consolidation area, but we are closer to the middle of the range, so we may have to go back and forth.

I believe that the market will continue to be very noisy, with the jobs number coming out of America on Friday. Because of this, is can be difficult to trade this week, but I think that the jobs number coming out on Friday could move this market much quicker than we are seeing presently. If the jobs number is good, ironically this pair will rally as it will sell off the US dollar and put more of a “risk on” attitude into the market. I believe ultimately, we do rally, the question isn’t necessarily whether we will, but whether we do it from here or from a lower level after a pullback.

Economic Calendar