NZD/USD Price Forecast February 12, 2018, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar rallied on Friday, breaking to a fresh, new high on the hourly chart. However, it has not been decisive, so I wonder whether we can keep up the momentum? The risk appetite of traders around the world has certainly been tampered over the last couple of days, and that doesn’t exactly work out well for the Kiwi dollar. The Kiwi dollar is highly levered to commodity plays, and the overall health of the commodity markets. If we can get more of a “risk on” move in the commodity pits, then I think that the New Zealand dollar will climb. At the very least, we need the US dollar to calm down and stop rallying against everything.

If we were to break down to a fresh, new low then I think the market is going to go looking towards the 0.70 level, and then the 0.68 level which is the bottom of longer-term consolidation. The 0.75 level above is the top of that consolidation, and a formidable resistance barrier. I believe that these pullbacks have been attempts to build up the necessary momentum to finally break out. The markets are going to be skittish, because quite frankly the stock markets had become deceptively quiet, so as soon as volatility comes back into play, people freak out. However, it looks as if we are seen quite a bit of pushback from the buyers, so I think that the upward momentum should return given enough time. I’d be a buyer above the 0.7275.