NZD/USD Price Forecast February 14, 2018, Technical Analysis

This pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so pay attention to that worldwide. Stock markets are an excellent indicator for where risk appetite might be, and as a rule this market will rally right along with the stock markets. I believe that the US dollar should continue to soften over the longer term, so I feel it’s only a matter of time before this pair rallies. Ultimately, I think that the market will go looking towards the 0.75 handle above, which is a large, round, psychologically significant level. If we can break above that level, then the market can continue to go higher, perhaps even reaching as high as 0.80 over the longer term.

If we can break below the 0.72 handle, I think that the market will probably roll over and go looking towards the 0.70 level underneath, which of course is psychologically and historically important. Overall, we are consolidating longer-term, with the 0.68 level offering the “floor” underneath, while the 0.75 level above offers the “ceiling.” Ultimately, I think that the buyers will return but those are the outliers of the consolidation area that you should be paying attention to. Eventually, we will break out of this range, and that will give us a longer-term potential trade. Until then, I anticipate that although we are bullish in general, it’s likely that we will have a lot of volatility. There seems to be a lot of questions as to how the market is going to play on, but I believe that risk appetite continues to be good as global economies scale up.

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