NZD/USD Price Forecast February 26, 2018, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar fell a bit after initially trying to rally on Friday, and as a record this is starting to show signs of resiliency again. However, I believe that there’s much more support closer to the 0.7250 level, so I think waiting a bit might be the best way to go if you are planning on going long. Shorting this pair is going to be difficult, mainly because the weekly chart has shown a lot of resiliency near the 0.7250 level, and quite frankly you don’t have a lot of room to run at this point.

Keep in mind that the overall risk appetite of the world global markets has a massive influence on the New Zealand dollar, especially commodity markets. If they rally, typically the New Zealand dollar will rally itself. Otherwise, if they fall apart, that puts negative pressure on the Kiwi dollar. Currently, I believe that the US dollar is going to continue to struggle a bit, and that should continue to put upward pressure on this pair. However, I recognize that there is a lot of noise above, as it’s going to take several attempts to break above the 0.75 level, which of course is a major level on longer-term charts. If and when we can finally break above that level, then it becomes a “buy-and-hold market.” Until then, it’s probably more of a “buy on the dip” type of situation. I bullish, but I’m also realistic and understand is going to take a lot of work to break out.

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