NZD/USD Price Forecast February 28, 2018, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar has fallen initially during Tuesday trading, reaching down towards the 0.7250 level, an area that has been important more than once. On the hourly chart, we are starting to form a bit of a hammer, so that of course is a bullish sign, but we would need to see the market retake the 0.73 level to feel comfortable with the support holding. If it does get broken to the upside, it’s very likely that we go to the 0.7350 level above. That’s an area that should be resistive, but I do think that eventually we break above there.
The Core Durable Goods Orders number on Tuesday missed horribly out of the United States, so it makes sense that we could see the US dollar soften a bit during the day. Because of this, I believe that the New Zealand dollar will start to pick up a little bit of momentum, and with Federal Reserve Chair Powell testifying during the day, there is almost certainly going to be significant noise.
Longer-term, the US dollar does look a bit susceptible to selling pressure, and I believe that the treasury markets will continue to lead the way. If treasury markets sell off, that will be a driver for US dollar weakness, as we have seen recently. However, if we break down below the 0.7250 level, I think at that point we will probably find the 0.72 level as the next area where buyers may return. Ultimately, I do believe in the upside.

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