USD/CAD Price Forecast February 16, 2018, Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 1.25 level again. This is a bullish sign, and I believe that we will probably go to the 1.26 level above, an area that has seen a lot of volatility over the last couple of days. Nonetheless, this is a market that is very much in an uptrend, and I think that the oil markets are going to have a lot of negativity around them. I believe that the oil markets will roll over due to massive oversupply in the markets, as the US dollar has been rising, and of course US producers have been drilling at full tilt. Both of these are very negative for more oil, which of course is negative for the Canadian dollar.

Looking at the chart, you could make an argument for selling if we roll over, but we would need to break down below the 1.2450 level, before I’d be convinced that the market is ready to roll over. If it does, then we probably go down to the 1.23 handle, which has been important in the past. I think if we roll over here, we probably go even lower than that, as there is even more support at the 1.21 handle. Pay attention to oil, if it continues to fall from here, that should continue to put upward pressure on this pair.

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