USD/CAD Price Forecast February 23, 2018, Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied significantly against the Canadian dollar during the trading session on Thursday, but also sold off later in the day as the Americans got to work. Part of the move that we are seeing is in preparation for the inventories number. Longer-term, I do believe that this pair goes higher but we may get a pullback offering a bit of value. I think that there are a lot of issues with the Canadian dollar beyond the possibility of the oil markets going soft, not the least of which is a housing bubble. In general, the other thing that should be thought of is that the core retail sales in Canada came out at -1.8% month over month, which is a bit shocking.

The pair will of course continue to be a proxy for oil, so keep that in mind, but I think that we will see higher prices given enough time. As with many of the currency pairs that I’m watching right now, I am very cautious about jumping into the market with both feet, and therefore would keep it a very small position, and then add it as the market works out in my favor. You can see that this pair does get very volatile at times, which makes sense considering that the economies are so highly intertwined. Because of this, be careful but I do favor the upside in general.

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