USD/JPY Price Forecast February 15, 2018, Technical Analysis

The US dollar had a negative session on Wednesday, breaking below the 107.50 level, an area that was the bottom of the overall consolidation for the last year or so. By breaking down below this level, it brings in a fresh new bearish attitude. The 107.50 level has offered resistance on the way back up, which of course is a negative sign as well. I think that given enough time we will probably continue to go towards the 105 level, but we are getting it extreme lows, so I think it will be a bit of a bumpy ride.

Typically, when the Japanese yen picks up strength that is due to people hiding from risk overall, even though we are seeing the exact opposite in the stock markets and some of the commodity markets. If this is driven by anything, it is probably driven by the dumping of the US dollar in general. If that’s the case, I think that we have continued bearish pressure, but I think if you’re looking to play the anti-US dollar sentiment, it is easier to buy other currencies against the damn the Japanese yen, as it is so highly correlated with a lot of issues.

Longer-term, if we can break above the 108 level, I might consider buying, but until then I think short-term trading will probably be about as good as it gets, giving you an opportunity to sell short-term rallies on signs of exhaustion for small trades only, I anticipate that the 105 level will be very noisy.

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