AUD/USD Price Forecast March 22, 2018, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has drifted a bit lower during trading on Wednesday, as we await the monetary policy statement coming out of the Federal Reserve. Obviously, the biggest question now is going to be whether there are 3 or 4 interest rate hikes coming this year. This will make a huge difference as to what happens with the US dollar, but from a technical analysis standpoint, it’s obvious that we have broken down below a significant support level in the form of 0.77, and of course have broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Because of this, I think we will go looking towards the uptrend line below, somewhere near the 0.76 level, which is the bottom of a daily uptrend channel that has been in effect for quite some time. If we were to break down below there, then we go to the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, the psychologically important 0.75 handle.

If the Federal Reserve surprises with a significantly dovish tone, or perhaps even comes out and states that there are only 3 interest rate hikes coming, the Aussie could get a bit of a pickup at that point, reaching towards the 0.7750 level, and then eventually 0.78 and the next couple of sessions. I think it will be choppy, and of course you need to pay attention to gold as it will also be very sensitive to what happens with the monetary policy. In general, I think that the sellers are still in control, but things could change rapidly.