AUD/USD Price Forecast March 23, 2018, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar had a rough trading session on Thursday, reaching down towards the 0.77 level. There is a significant amount of noise in this area though, and I think that it could cause a bit of a bounce. If we were to break down below the 0.7675 handle, that should open the door to the 0.76 level which is basically where the daily uptrend line and the of trending channel is found, but if that gives way, look out below. That could send this market down to the 0.75 handle. I believe a lot of this will be driven by risk appetite, or the lack of it.

The Australian dollar is highly leveraged to the Chinese economy, and with the President of the United States ready to sign tariffs against the Chinese, that will more than likely cause issues with the Aussie dollar. The idea of a trade war is very negative for most commodity currencies, and of course the Australian dollar will be any different. Otherwise, if we do rally I think that we could see a bit of resistance at the 0.78 handle but breaking above there should free the market to go looking towards the 0.79 level after that. I think that we have more downside risk and up currently, but of course things can change considering that we are trading on the whims of geopolitical headlines. Pay attention to gold, it generally will point the direction as well, as Australia is such a huge exporter of that commodity, as well as copper.