EUR/USD Price Forecast March 16, 2018, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has drifted lower during the trading session on Thursday, showing signs of “risk off” trading. I think that we will eventually find buyers underneath, as the 1.23 level should be important. If we break down below there, then I think the market probably goes down to the 1.21 handle, or perhaps the uptrend line just above there. So, this point I think it’s probably best to wait for the end of the day to see where things land. The 1.25 level above is massive resistance, so I think to get above there it’s going to take a significant amount of momentum to finally clear that area and fulfill the longer-term target that I see from a technical standpoint on the weekly chart, which was the break of the bullish flag, measuring to the 1.32 handle.

However, if we break down below the 1.21 level, that destroys the uptrend in my mind, and I think at that point I would be willing to start shorting again. Overall, the noisy attitude of this market will probably continue, and therefore I think that small position sizes will be needed, at least to be able to handle the noisy conditions that we find ourselves in. I think the markets are trying to reevaluate a lot of economic assumptions. Economic numbers out of the European Union have been soft as of late, so that could continue to weigh upon the EUR, but at the same time it is a “risk on” move to go long of this pair. Because of this, I think we continue to see very noisy conditions.