EUR/USD Price Forecast March 20, 2018, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair rally initially during the trading session on Monday, slamming into the 1.2325 handle. This was an area that was very noisy and supportive in the past, so it makes sense that it would be resistance now. I think if we can break above the 1.2350 level, the market will be free to go higher. Until then, we still have some downside risk in this market, especially if the Federal Reserve becomes even more hawkish at this next meeting. The statement will be important, as the market is already expecting an interest rate hike. If it sounds as if there are going to be for interest rate hikes this year, that will be very dollar positive, and could unleash the sellers in this market as the ECB still sees need for quantitative easing in general.

While the ECB is looking to cut away from quantitative easing, we haven’t seen them do much of it. If the Federal Reserve is going to continue to tighten, it makes a bit of a perfect storm to turn things around and go looking towards the 1.21 handle. A breakdown below that level would be a very negative turn of events. As things stand right now though, I think the uptrend is very much intact, but it’s been so messy as of late the quite frankly trading this pair has become more of a hassle than anything else. A little bit of clarity this week after the Federal Reserve meeting would be nice.