GBP/USD Price Forecast March 5, 2018, Technical Analysis

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the day on Friday but rolled over a bit to reach down towards the 50 EMA on the hourly chart. I think there’s plenty of support below though, and most certainly at the 1.3650 level. I believe that the market should continue to be very noisy, and we could drift a little bit lower from here, but I think eventually it gives us an opportunity to pick up value at lower levels. Ultimately, I believe that the 1.3650 level is the defining level for the uptrend, so if we can stay above there I think we will eventually get a buying opportunity that’s worth taking.

If we did breakdown below the 1.3650 level, I think this pair would fall very hard at that point, because it would be essentially “throwing in the towel” when it comes to the outlook for the British pound. I think this is a simple retest for the longer-term move though, so it’s only a matter of time before the buyers show up, so on a supportive daily candle, I’m a buyer. I would also buy on a break above the highs from the Friday session, near the 1.3825 level. At that point, I would anticipate a move back to the 1.40 level after that, which is a major barrier and level on longer-term charts. I believe at that point, we would then target the 1.43 level. Expect a lot of noise, but eventually I’m looking for an opportunity to take advantage of value.

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