NZD/USD Price Forecast March 19, 2018, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar rolled over on Friday, as we had a bit of a “risk off” situation creep into the market, and the higher than anticipated Industrial Production figures coming out of the United States would also help the greenback overall. The 0.72 level is supportive, so if we were to break down below there I think we could unwind a bit, perhaps reaching towards the 0.70 level next. Over the last several weeks, we have bounced around in this general acidity, so a bounce from the 0.72 level would not be a huge surprise. I think that waiting for the daily close will probably tell you where we go, but I think the easiest way is to buy this market if we can break above the 0.7260 handle. Otherwise, if we clear the 0.72 level I think at that point you can probably start selling. I would recognize this as a market that needs to be traded in small positions, mainly because the volatility is starting to pick up around the world.

I think that global growth and of course fears of a trade war will come into focus when it comes to the NZD/USD pair, so I think that you need to be very cautious. The New Zealand dollar is very sensitive to global trade, as it is such a highly correlated currency to commodity markets. The selloff during the day could be a buying opportunity, but I would wait for some type of stabilization for several hours before I would be a buyer.