NZD/USD Price Forecast March 20, 2018, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar has been very choppy during the trading session on Monday, as the 0.72 level has offered a bit of support. However, I see the 0.7250 level as offering resistance, so I think the upside is somewhat limited. The noise is mainly due to the uncertainty around the world and financial markets, with commodity markets being no different than the stock market, there is a general “risk off” feel to them. Because of this, I believe that the US dollar will continue to show signs of strength, and that will only be exacerbated if the Federal Reserve signals that there are going to be 4 rate hikes this year, and not 3. If that’s the case, there will be some dollar strengthening that we need to come to grips with.

A break above the 0.7250 level sends this market higher, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we will break out longer term. That would probably send this market looking to the 0.7350 level, which has been resistance more than once now. I think in general it’s probably going to be easier to sell the rallies as they appear, but I also recognize that there is significant support at 0.72, and below there at the 0.70 level. If that level were to break, it would be horrific for the New Zealand dollar, and would probably signal that risk was completely off the table and various other markets around the world as well. I expect choppy conditions regardless.