NZD/USD Price Forecast March 26, 2018, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar broke higher during trading on Friday, reaching towards the 0.7250 level above, which of course is psychological importance, and of course the 50-day EMA. A break above the highs for the session on Friday would be reason enough start going long, and at that point I would anticipate that the market will probably reach towards the 0.7350 handle. Alternately, if we pull back from here I think that there should be plenty of support just beneath, with the 0.7170 level offering support enough to keep the market afloat. However, if we were to break down below there, the market would break down towards the 0.71 handle, followed by the 0.70 level.

This is a market that continues to be very noisy, but I do like the New Zealand dollar longer term. If there is a trade war though, that could have a lot of negative influence on the New Zealand dollar, and could make a pull back a bit. Remember, the New Zealand economy is highly leveraged to China, and it’ll be interesting to see how that reacts to the discussions about trade wars. If things calm down, it’s likely that the New Zealand dollar will continue to go even higher. Ultimately, I think that the market will continue to be jittery, but the attitude over the last several months has been bullish, so all things being equal I would anticipate that the buyers will probably become aggressive eventually, but they need some reason to get involved to the upside.