USD/CAD Price Forecast March 12, 2018, Technical Analysis

Pay attention to the oil markets, as they have a massive amount of influence on the Canadian dollar. If oil markets rally, it’s likely that the USD/CAD pair will continue to fall. As we are getting close to the end of the Friday trading session, it does look like we’re going to see a bit of a pullback. When you look at the longer-term charts, the 1.30 level of course is a major area of resistance, not only structurally but also because of the large, round, psychologically significant level. I think that market participants will continue to move this market back and forth, as the economies are so highly intertwined, but it certainly looks as if we are going to continue the overall consolidation that we have seen lately and forming a shooting star at the top of that range makes perfect sense as we continue the overall range.

In the meantime, I anticipate that the markets will give us an opportunity to sell rallies that show signs of exhaustion unless we can break above the 1.2875 handle, which would have market participants looking towards the 1.30 level again. If we break above there, then it becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” scenario. I think that the market is and quite ready to go anywhere for a longer-term move yet, least not after what I’ve seen on Friday. Stay tuned, it’s possible that things change, but in the meantime, I think we are more likely to go lower in the short run.

Economic Calendar