USD/CAD Price Forecast March 19, 2018, Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied significantly during the session on Friday, reaching towards the 1.31 level as I record this. However, this market is of course going to be highly sensitive to the oil markets, and I think a line of the move higher during the day on Friday had to do with a better than anticipated Industrial Production announcement, driving the idea of higher interest rates in America to the forefront. While we do know that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates, this is yet another reason to think that it will happen. Remember, we have recently seen poor Retail Sales figures, so I think some people may have gotten ahead of themselves to think that there was going to be less interest rate hikes.

Oil markets of course will have a significant effect on the market, that’s generally what drives the Canadian dollar, as it is a proxy for oil trading by currency markets. I think that the 1.30 level should be a massive support level, as it was a previous resistance barrier. I think that we continue to go higher, but quite frankly this is going to be difficult for buyers at times, because there is a lot of noise between here and the 1.35 level. If we break down below the 1.2950 level, that could send this market even lower, perhaps down to the 1.28 level.