USD/CAD Price Forecast March 20, 2018, Technical Analysis

The US dollar fell initially during training on Monday, but you can see clearly has bounced significantly from the 1.3040 level. By doing so, it looks as if we continue to see bullish pressure in this pair, perhaps focusing on the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that are coming. The question now isn’t whether we get one this week, but rather or not we are going to get 3 or 4 this year. There is an argument to be made that perhaps we get for, and that has put a bit of a floor in the dollar. Beyond that, there has been a bit of a “risk off” attitude in this market during the day in general, as stock markets have been hammered. That of course helps the US dollar as well, and if oil continues to struggle, that will course punish the Canadian dollar.

Breaking 1.30 was very important, and I think that should continue to be something that most traders pay attention to. It’s likely that the 1.30 level will now act as a “floor” in this market, and we could go towards the 1.35 level over the longer term. It will be very noisy, this pair typically is, but eventually we will get some type of search higher again. It is because of this that I have initiated fresh longs, but a small position looking to add every time we pull back and show signs of support as we did Monday morning. If oil breaks down, I will only become more aggressive in this pair.