AUD/USD treading water in light trading on Friday

The Australian dollar has drifted a bit lower during the trading session on Friday, and it’s likely that we will probably find support just below. When I look at the longer-term charts, mainly the weekly timeframe, I am encouraged because we have bounced from a major trend line and the weekly candle is a bit of a hammer. It is because of this that I think we will eventually break out to a fresh, new high, which would be a buying signal, just above the 0.77 handle. It will be noisy, but I think eventually we will continue to go higher.

If we break down below the 0.76 handle, then I think the market breaks down significantly. This will have a lot to do with risk appetite and talks a trade war, which of course is interconnected currently. I think that the market will eventually make up its mind, and I think a lot of it will come down to the attitude of negotiators between the United States and China. Overall, I think that the market will eventually find plenty of reason to go higher. I think that at this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of noise in this market, but that makes a lot of sense as there are a lot of concerns and issues when it comes to potential trade deals, and of course the stock markets have been noisy as well.