Australian dollar falls during choppy session on Thursday

The Australian dollar has drifted a bit lower during the trading session on Thursday, breaking down towards the 0.7650 level, an area that should continue to be supportive. However, I think it’s only a matter of time before the buyers get involved, mainly because of the previous uptrend line that has been so reliable. Longer-term, I anticipate that this market will eventually find a reason to go to the 0.81 handle. However, the jobs number coming out today will have a lot of influence on where the risk appetite of traders around the world will be, and if the risk appetite strengthens, the AUD/USD pair should rally.

The alternate scenario is that if we have a “risk off” move, that will break this market down, perhaps slicing through the uptrend line underneath. If we break down through the 0.76 level, it’s likely that the market will go to the 0.75 level after that. Keep in mind that gold of course has an influence on this pair as well, so it’s likely that we will continue to be very noisy overall but paying attention to the gold market should give you an idea as to where this market should go as they are so highly correlated. The situation continues to be very noisy, so I would be very cautious with my position size, only adding when the market proves my trade to work out in favor. Otherwise, you could sit on the sidelines and wait for the overall reaction of the markets on a daily close to give you more clarity.