New Zealand dollar initially tries to rally but fails on Friday

I anticipate that the New Zealand dollar is going to continue to be very noisy, but that’s nothing new to anyone who’s ever traded this market. I think yet if we break down below the 0.650 level, the market probably roles over towards the 0.69 level again, then possibly the 0.68 level which is the bottom of support over the last couple of years. The alternate scenario of course is that we break above the 0.70 level, then we go higher, perhaps reaching to the 0.7050 level.

New Zealand dollar traders are course paying attention to the commodity markets as well, as it tends to have a lot of influence on where we go next. Pay attention to the US dollar overall, because it does look like it is softening a bit, as it may have been overbought. With that in mind, I think that the next move will be based upon the greenback more than anything else, and probably has very little to do with the New Zealand dollar, it’s economy, or more than anything else.

If we did break out to the upside, I think that there is going to be a lot of resistance at the 0.72 level above, as it has been important more than once. I still think there’s a downward proclivity, but we may get a short-term reprieve for the New Zealand dollar.