The Australian dollar breaks down again on Tuesday

The Australian dollar has broken down a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, slicing towards the 0.7450 level. That’s an area that is going to continue to be of minor importance, but I believe there is much more significant is tied to the 0.75 handle, and I think it will be a bit of a “ceiling” in the market, and I believe that the sellers will jump in somewhere near that area. Alternately, if we break down below the 0.7450 level, the market will probably go much lower, perhaps down to the 0.74 level in the short term, followed by the 0.7250 handle.

I believe that every time we rally, it will probably be a selling opportunity during the majority of the summer, as we continue to see a lot of US dollar positivity. I believe that the rest of the summer will see rising interest rates in the United states, and more importantly than that we will see interest rate expectations rising in America while many central banks around the world will continue to look very soft. This has an effect on gold, which is one of the major drivers of the Australian dollar. Retail numbers coming out so poorly of course tells us that the Reserve Bank of Australia is very likely to stay on hold for quite some time, as the populace cannot support higher interest rates. I believe that this is one of the most vulnerable currency pairs to US dollar strength over the next several months.